苹果周报：需求表现一般，果价稳定为主-20251222

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This year, apple production has declined, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, storage is more difficult, and cold - storage inventory data is low. The peak cold - storage apple inventory this year is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the apple quality is relatively poor. So, the effective inventory is likely to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. Although the recent market sales are average and the futures market is technically weak, considering the production issue, the downward space is expected to be limited [16] Summary by Directory Logic Analysis and Trading Strategy Spot Analysis - The trading atmosphere in the late Fuji apple production areas remains light. Traders' enthusiasm for purchasing from fruit farmers has decreased, mainly packaging pre - ordered and self - stored goods. High - quality apples maintain stable prices, while the prices of ordinary and lower - quality apples from fruit farmers have loosened. In the sales areas, the sales are still slow, with the sales volume lower than the same period last year. Oranges and other citrus fruits are competing with apples [6] - In Shandong, a small number of traders package self - stored goods for shipment. The export demand has decreased, and the prices of fruit for preserves and small fruits have loosened. In Shaanxi, the prices of fruit from fruit farmers in secondary production areas have slightly declined, and the overall shipment is mainly from traders' self - stored goods. The Christmas and New Year stocking atmosphere is not strong [6] Supply Analysis - In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity utilization rate is 54.70%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points this week. The cold - storage shipment has increased, especially for inferior fruits. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity utilization rate is 52.59%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points. Traders are more pessimistic, and the demand for low - quality fruits is okay [11] - As of December 17, 2025, the total cold - storage apple inventory in the main production areas is 752.98 million tons, a decrease of 5.57 million tons from last week, and the sales are slower than last year [11] Demand Analysis - In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of arriving trucks has increased. The market is generally light, with only high - quality apples from Gansu selling well. Second - and third - level wholesalers are not very enthusiastic about purchasing, and the inventory in transit warehouses is piling up [14] - As of December 18, the average wholesale price of six key monitored fruits is 7.66 yuan per kilogram, slightly higher than last Friday and at a high level compared to the same period in recent years [14] Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: Due to low production and poor quality, the apple fundamentals are strong. Although the market is currently weak, the downward space is limited [16] - Unilateral: The futures market is technically weak, but the downward space is limited [16] - Arbitrage: Go long on the January contract and short on the October contract [16] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16] Weekly Data Tracking Apple Supply and Demand - The document provides data on apple export, planting area, consumption, production, and deep - processing volume from 2018 - 2023, but no specific analysis is given [20] Inventory and Shipment - The document presents historical data on national, Shandong, and Shaanxi cold - storage apple inventory and shipment, but no specific analysis is given [23] Spread and Basis - The document shows historical data on the basis of January, May, and October contracts and the spreads between 1 - 5, 5 - 10, and 10 - 1 contracts, but no specific analysis is given [28]