银河期货农产品日报-20251222

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The apple yield has decreased this year, with a poor high - quality fruit rate and increased storage difficulty. Cold - storage inventory data is low, and the effective inventory is likely to be low, indicating a strong fundamental situation for apples. Although the market sales are average recently and the market shows technical weakness, the downward space is expected to be relatively limited considering the yield issue [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - Spot Prices: The Fuji apple price index is 109.01, up 0.31 from the previous trading day. The 6 - fruit average wholesale price is 7.74, up 0.06. Prices of some varieties like Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remain unchanged [2]. - Futures Prices: AP01 is at 9575, down 10; AP05 is at 9149, down 50; AP10 is at 8101, down 49. The spreads between contracts also show some changes, such as AP01 - AP05 up 40 and AP05 - AP10 down 1 [2]. - Basis: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against different contracts shows some fluctuations. For example, the basis against AP01 is - 1375, up 10 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - Market News - As of December 17, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory is 752.98 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.57 million tons, with sales slower than the same period last year [7]. - In October 2025, the fresh apple import volume is 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68.09% and a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. The cumulative import volume from January to October 2025 is 11.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.18%. The export volume in October 2025 is about 8.04 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.04% [7]. - The apple market remains stable, with increased trading activity in production areas. In Shandong, traders mainly buy low - price and other - variety products. In the northwest, traders mainly package their own inventory, and the sales of third - grade and inferior fruits are okay [7]. - In Shaanxi's Luochuan, the mainstream transaction price of semi - commodity cold - storage apples (70 and above) is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per jin. Traders mainly package their own inventory, and farmers are willing to sell but still hold out for higher prices [7]. - Trading Strategy - Single - side: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and watch whether key levels can be effectively broken [8]. - Arbitrage: Go long on 1 and short on 10 [8]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Third Part: Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the prices of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70 apples, AP contract main basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volumes in some places, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple outbound volume [11][13][18][20][23].