格林大华期货早盘提示-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, the major stock indices in the two markets rose collectively, with growth - style indices led by the ChiNext Index performing strongly, and the semiconductor equipment sector leading the gains. The total turnover of the two markets reached 1.86 trillion yuan, showing a mild increase in volume [1]. - As of December 19, the total scale of all - market listed ETFs reached 5.83 trillion yuan, a year - to - date increase of 2.09 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 56%. ETFs have become an important channel for attracting household wealth [1][2]. - Global funds are re - increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market. The Chinese technology sector is becoming a new battlefield for global funds to deploy in AI due to its valuation advantages, complete industrial ecosystem, and large - scale manufacturing capabilities [2][3]. - In 2026, the risk of a sharp rise in the Chinese stock market is much higher than that of a sharp decline, with multiple positive factors such as the acceleration of AI applications and the re - allocation of domestic liquidity from deposits to the stock market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the major indices of the two markets rose. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,611 points, up 43 points or 0.95%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 3,020 points, up 15 points or 0.53%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 7,255 points, up 86 points or 1.20%; and the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,408 points, up 78 points or 1.07% [1]. - Among industry and thematic ETFs, semiconductor equipment ETFs, communication ETFs, etc. led the gains, while film and television ETFs, bank ETFs, etc. led the losses. Among the sector indices of the two markets, Hainan Free Trade, communication equipment, etc. led the gains, while forestry, film and television theaters, etc. led the losses. The CSI 500 Index futures saw a net inflow of 1.9 billion yuan in settled funds [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The People's Bank of China will implement a one - time credit repair policy. For individual overdue information with a single amount not exceeding 10,000 yuan from 2020 to 2025, if the individual fully repays the overdue debt by March 31, 2026 (inclusive), the financial credit information database will not display it [1]. - Precious metals soared. Spot gold reached over 4,400, silver hit a new record high, and platinum broke through the $2,000 mark for the first time in 16 years, driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks [1]. - In November, the domestic new - energy heavy - truck market sold 28,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 178%, and the sales volume in the first three quarters increased by 184% year - on - year. New - energy heavy trucks have a significant cost advantage in short - and medium - distance freight [1]. - Wall Street expects high volatility in the U.S. stock market in 2026. Some institutions suggest a hedging strategy of going long on the Nasdaq 100 Index volatility and shorting the S&P 500 Index volatility [2]. - The expected shipment of NVIDIA's GB300 AI server cabinets in 2026 is 55,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 129%, driven by tech giants like Microsoft and Meta [2]. - OpenAI's "computing profit margin" soared from about 35% to 70% in less than two years, indicating significant progress in controlling AI model operating costs [2]. - The U.S. is promoting the largest - scale space militarization deployment since the Cold War, with the Pentagon awarding military satellite orders worth $3.5 billion [2]. - Elon Musk's personal net worth soared to $749 billion, becoming the first person in human history to exceed $700 billion, due to a court decision restoring Tesla stock options [2]. - The so - called "stable returns" promised by Wall Street to retail investors are collapsing, with BDC stocks of top institutions like KKR and BlackRock plummeting and non - performing loan rates rising [2]. 3.3 Market Logic - The growth of the Chinese stock market and the expansion of ETF scale are attracting global investors. China's technological breakthroughs in AI and its resilience in the face of external pressure are restoring global investors' confidence in China's long - term growth [2]. - In 2025, the stock market had a net inflow of 2.26 trillion yuan. In 2026, insurance, wealth management, and pensions are expected to be the three major sources of incremental funds, with institutional incremental funds reaching 3.1 trillion yuan, and the scale of public fixed - income + products is expected to at least double [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook - It is expected that the market will remain in a sideways - oscillating state. Global funds are re - increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market, with the Chinese technology sector becoming an important target for AI investment. Geopolitical risks need to be closely monitored, and investors should gradually start spring - market layout [3]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - For stock - index futures directional trading, observe the market and gradually start spring - market layout, while closely monitoring the impact of geopolitical risks [3]. - For stock - index option trading, do not participate in stock - index call options for the time being as the market is expected to be in a sideways - oscillating state [3].