中国期货每日简报-20251223

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - On December 22, equity index futures rose while CGB futures fell; most commodities advanced, with platinum and palladium hitting the daily upward limit. China's financial futures showed IC rising by 1.0%, IM rising by 0.9%, and TL falling by 0.3%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were SCFIS (Europe), Palladium, and Platinum, while the top three decliners were LLDPE, Poly - Silicon, and PP [10][11][12]. - The December LPR quotes show that both the 5 - year and 1 - year rates remain unchanged at 3.5% and 3% respectively [35]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On December 22, equity index futures increased, CGB futures decreased, and most commodities went up, with platinum and palladium reaching the daily upward limit. Financial futures: IC up 1.0%, IM up 0.9%, TL down 0.3%. Commodity futures: Top gainers were SCFIS (Europe) up 8.8% with a 15.9% month - on - month increase in position holdings, Palladium up 7.0% with a 16.3% month - on - month increase in position holdings, and Platinum up 7.0% with an 8.5% month - on - month increase in position holdings. Top decliners were LLDPE down 2.4% with a 1.3% month - on - month increase in position holdings, Poly - Silicon down 2.1% with a 3.0% month - on - month decrease in position holdings, and PP down 1.8% with a 2.6% month - on - month increase in position holdings [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Raise - Palladium: On December 22, it rose 7.0% to 508.45 yuan per gram. Russian geopolitical issues disrupt supply, and the U.S. investigation on Russian - imported palladium causes supply tightening in other regions. Demand has structural pressure. Long - term supply - demand tends to loosen, but short - term shortages lead to price surges, and the Fed's interest rate cut cycle supports the price [16][17][18]. - Platinum: On December 22, it rose 7.0% to 568.45 yuan per gram. This week, the impaired Fed independence and liquidity easing logic drive the price up, and spot shortages support it. The domestic - international price spread has widened, and there are arbitrage opportunities, but short - term spreads may remain high due to hedging quota restrictions. The GFEX's trading limits suppress the price. In the long term, supply disruption risks persist, demand will expand, and the "rate cuts + soft landing" combination will amplify price elasticity, so a long - position view is maintained [22][23][25]. - Silver: On December 22, it rose 6.1% to 16,210 yuan per kilogram. It leads in the commodity market, but volatility risks increase. Quarterly drivers come from liquidity easing expectations. Monitor the Fed Chair nomination and January economic data. The domestic inventory recovery eases the backwardation structure, but the LSSR remains high, and short - squeezes may recur. Next year, the dollar credit contraction narrative will drive precious metals up, and silver may have greater price elasticity [30][31][32]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - December LPR quotes: The 5 - year and above LPR is 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR is 3%, both unchanged from last month. - The draft Childcare Services Law was submitted for the first reading to the 19th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress on December 22. - The EU initiated an anti - dumping investigation on sodium benzoate from China on December 19, 2025. - MOFCOM will implement provisional countervailing measures on EU dairy products starting from December 23, 2025 [35][36][37]. 2.2 Industry News - DCE will implement fee reduction and exemption measures from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, excluding high - frequency traders, including exempting futures delivery fees, standard warehouse receipt transfer payment fees, standard warehouse receipt as margin fees, futures - to - physical conversion fees, and halving hedging transaction fees. - ZCE will exempt all futures varieties from hedging open position fees, delivery fees, warehouse receipt transfer fees, and standard warehouse receipt as margin fees in 2026, excluding high - frequency traders. - GFEX will implement fee reduction and exemption measures from January 1 to December 31, 2026, excluding high - frequency traders, such as exempting delivery, standard warehouse receipt futures - to - physical, transfer, margin fees for all futures and offering a 50% discount on hedging fees for all futures and options [38][40][42].