12月LPR利率未动，油厂豆粕库存增加

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Foreign exchange futures (US Dollar Index): Bearish, suggesting the US Dollar Index will weaken [13] - US stock index futures: Expected to trend strongly with oscillations [15] - Stock index futures: Long - position allocation of various stock indices in a balanced manner [18] - Treasury bond futures: Long - term varieties are bottoming out. Allocation investors can buy when interest rates rise, and trading investors can buy on dips and exit quickly [22] - Black metals (rebar/hot - rolled coil): Adopt an oscillatory mindset towards steel prices [25] - Agricultural products (soybean meal): Expected to remain weak. In the absence of major South American weather anomalies, consider shorting on rallies for the May contract [26] - Black metals (coking coal/coke): In the short term, coking coal lacks upward momentum. Pay attention to downstream restocking [29] - Non - ferrous metals (lead): In a single - sided trade, focus on opportunities to stop losses on short positions; in arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [33] - Non - ferrous metals (zinc): In a single - sided trade, look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks; in a calendar spread, maintain long positions in positive spreads; in an international spread, consider reverse arbitrage [37] - Non - ferrous metals (polysilicon): Spot prices are expected to be resistant to decline. New prices' success depends on downstream price transmission. Due to large price fluctuations and risk - control measures, investors are advised to hold positions with caution [42] - Non - ferrous metals (industrial silicon): Current production cuts are insufficient to reverse the inventory build - up. Consider shorting on rallies [45] - Non - ferrous metals (lithium carbonate): In the short term, strong inventory reduction and postponed production resumption support bullish sentiment. However, after production resumes and demand weakens in the off - season, prices may correct. In the long - term, consider buying on dips [47] - Non - ferrous metals (copper): In a single - sided trade, expect high - level oscillations; in arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [51] - Non - ferrous metals (nickel): If cobalt pricing is implemented, consider mid - term long positions on dips. If RKAB is set at 250 million wet tons, nickel prices will rise significantly. But if both expectations are unmet, consider shorting on rallies [56] - Energy and chemicals (crude oil): Short - term risk premiums support oil prices, with increased volatility [60] - Energy and chemicals (asphalt): Short - term prices are expected to be stable at the bottom [62] - Energy and chemicals (PTA): The short - term market remains strong. Hold long positions and monitor downstream negative feedback [65] - Energy and chemicals (urea): For the 01 contract, expect oscillations. For the 05 contract, after a certain margin of safety is provided, consider low - buying to bet on spring - farming restocking and new export quota policies [67] - Energy and chemicals (styrene): Temporarily maintain an oscillatory pattern. In the medium - term, look for low - buying opportunities [70] - Energy and chemicals (caustic soda): Supply - demand contradictions have eased. A decline in liquid chlorine prices may support caustic soda prices [72] - Energy and chemicals (PVC): In the short term, expect low - level oscillations. In 2026, new production capacity is limited, and exports are expected to improve. If low - valuation persists before and during spring maintenance, there may be an upward trend [74] 2. Core Views - Trump is expected to nominate a new Fed Chairman in early January, boosting market risk appetite and causing the US Dollar Index to decline [12] - The Fed's internal differences over interest rate cuts are significant, and the market may re - price the long - term interest rate cut path. Short - term risk appetite has improved [14] - After the Bank of Japan's less - than - expected interest rate hike, A - shares have increased in volume, and the market is in an offensive state [17] - With the unchanged policy interest rate and rising risk appetite, Treasury bond futures have declined, but long - term varieties are bottoming out [20] - Steel prices are oscillating strongly, with short - term supply - demand contradictions not prominent, and the market is starting to bet on winter stockpiling [24] - The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and soybean meal inventory has increased again. The market lacks bullish factors [26] - Coking coal and coke are in a state of weak supply and demand. Pay attention to downstream restocking and future supply - demand changes [28] - The lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and prices are likely to oscillate [33] - The zinc market's short - term fundamentals have few contradictions, and prices are likely to rise in the medium - term [37] - The polysilicon market has a problem of inventory build - up and weak demand. New prices' success depends on downstream price transmission [40] - The supply and demand of industrial silicon depend on production cuts. Current production cuts may not reverse inventory build - up [44] - The lithium carbonate market has short - term bullish sentiment, but prices may correct after production resumes. In the long - term, consider buying on dips [46] - Geopolitical risks support the copper price, but short - term fundamentals are weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [50] - The nickel market has uncertainties in RKAB and cobalt pricing. Consider mid - term long positions on dips under certain conditions [56] - Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium of crude oil, but floating crude oil is a bearish factor [59] - The asphalt market has seen inventory build - up, and short - term prices are expected to be stable at the bottom [61] - The PTA market is rising due to expectations of inventory reduction, but there are differences between the industrial and financial sectors, and attention should be paid to downstream negative feedback [64] - The urea market's 01 contract is expected to oscillate, and the 05 contract should focus on spring - farming restocking and new export quota policies [67] - The styrene market is in an oscillatory pattern, and the key lies in the pure benzene segment. Look for low - buying opportunities in the medium - term [70] - The caustic soda market's supply - demand contradictions have eased, and a decline in liquid chlorine prices may support the price [72] - The PVC market is in the bottom range, with short - term supply - demand contradictions difficult to resolve. In 2026, supply - demand may improve [74] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump will soon nominate a new Fed Chairman, which will increase market risk appetite and lead to a decline in the US Dollar Index [12] - Trump will launch a "ground" crackdown on drug - trafficking, and US officials have held constructive talks with Ukraine and European representatives [11] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed official Milan believes that not cutting interest rates in 2026 will lead to a recession risk. The Fed has internal differences on interest rate cuts, and the market may re - price the long - term interest rate cut path [14] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council is planning major projects. In December, LPR remained unchanged. A - shares increased in volume on December 22, and the market is in an offensive state [16][17] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - In December, LPR remained unchanged, and the central bank conducted 67.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 63.6 billion yuan. Treasury bond futures declined, but long - term varieties are bottoming out [19][20] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Magang's new galvanizing line project was successfully commissioned. 242 steel enterprises have completed the ultra - low emission transformation. Steel prices are oscillating strongly, and short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent [23][24] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Last week, the inventory of soybeans in major domestic oil mills decreased, while the inventory of soybean meal increased. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the market lacks bullish factors, and soybean meal is expected to remain weak [26] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Coking coal prices in Changzhi are fluctuating. Coking coal and coke are in a state of weak supply and demand. Pay attention to downstream restocking and future supply - demand changes [27][28] 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The government has cracked down on illegal mining. In November 2025, China's lead - acid battery exports decreased. The Shanghai Futures Exchange will waive multiple trading fees in 2026. The lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and prices are likely to oscillate [30][31][33] 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will waive multiple trading fees in 2026. In November 2025, zinc concentrate imports increased, and galvanized sheet exports decreased month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals of zinc have few contradictions, and prices are likely to rise in the medium - term [34][35][37] 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the designated delivery warehouses and quality inspection institutions for polysilicon futures. The polysilicon market has a problem of inventory build - up and weak demand. New prices' success depends on downstream price transmission [38][40] 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In November 2025, China exported 54,888.405 tons of industrial silicon. The supply and demand of industrial silicon depend on production cuts. Current production cuts may not reverse inventory build - up [44] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In November 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports reached a record high. The lithium carbonate market has short - term bullish sentiment, but prices may correct after production resumes. In the long - term, consider buying on dips [46] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - BHP will focus on Canadian copper mining. In November 2025, China's copper ore concentrate imports increased, and refined copper imports decreased. Geopolitical risks support the copper price, but short - term fundamentals are weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [48][49][50] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Vale Indonesia says the reduction in RKAB will not affect next year's production. The nickel market has uncertainties in RKAB and cobalt pricing. Consider mid - term long positions on dips under certain conditions [52][56] 3.2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The arrival volume of crude oil in Shandong exceeded 2.6 million tons. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium of crude oil, but floating crude oil is a bearish factor [57][59] 3.2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt refinery and social inventories have increased. Short - term prices are expected to be stable at the bottom [61] 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - On December 22, the PX price rose. The PTA market is rising due to expectations of inventory reduction, but there are differences between the industrial and financial sectors, and attention should be paid to downstream negative feedback [63][64] 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The weekly operating rate of compound fertilizers decreased. The 01 contract of urea is expected to oscillate, and the 05 contract should focus on spring - farming restocking and new export quota policies [66][67] 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports increased. The styrene market is in an oscillatory pattern, and the key lies in the pure benzene segment. Look for low - buying opportunities in the medium - term [68][70] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong is stable. The supply - demand contradictions have eased, and a decline in liquid chlorine prices may support the price [71][72] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market has declined. The PVC market is in the bottom range, with short - term supply - demand contradictions difficult to resolve. In 2026, supply - demand may improve [73][74]