纸浆供应利多催化，期货显著上涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures significantly increased, and the supply-side positive factors were the main catalysts. The pulp market is expected to be bullish in the short term, with the bottom of the futures price rising, and the probability of breaking below the low on December 1st is not high [1]. - The sentiment in the oil market showed signs of stabilizing. Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production and demand expectations of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - The spot price of soybean meal remained stable, and the futures price rebounded from oversold levels. Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and US soybeans are expected to fluctuate [6][7]. - The corn and starch market lacked clear drivers and is expected to fluctuate [7]. - The overall supply of live pigs is abundant, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, with a weakening supply pressure expected in the second half of 2026 [8]. - The rubber price continued to fluctuate, and the market lacked strong driving forces [10][11]. - The sentiment in the synthetic rubber market remained strong, and the market is expected to be bullish in the medium term [12]. - The cotton price continued to strengthen, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the long term, but the near-term contracts are restricted by hedging pressure [13]. - The sugar price is searching for a bottom, and it is expected to be bearish in the medium and long term due to the expected oversupply in the global sugar market [14][15]. - The double-offset paper market has no prominent contradictions and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [17]. - The fundamentals of logs are expected to improve, and there is support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the reverse spread and long opportunities in the far-month contracts [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp - Viewpoint: The futures significantly increased, and the supply-side positive factors were the main catalysts [1]. - Logic: Positive factors include the rising US dollar price of broadleaf pulp, the supply reduction expectation caused by the shutdown of pulp mills, the potential production reduction of other softwood pulp mills, and the relatively high actual demand for pulp. Negative factors include the difficulty in cost transfer for downstream paper products, the seasonal decline in demand starting from January, and the abundant liquidity of softwood pulp in the spot market [1]. - Outlook: Bullish in the short term, with the bottom of the futures price rising, and the probability of breaking below the low on December 1st is not high. The upper pressure level has shifted upward, with the 05 contract focusing on the pressure in the range of 5650 - 5750. The market is expected to fluctuate upward [1]. 3.2 Oils - Viewpoint: The sentiment in the oil market showed signs of stabilizing. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production and demand expectations of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - Logic: The US soybean market was bearish due to sufficient supply and concerns about Chinese demand. The South American soybean harvest is expected to be abundant. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased seasonally in December, and the probability of inventory reduction at the origin is high. The supply of domestic rapeseed is tight, but the supply is expected to increase in the future [5]. - Outlook: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the technical support at the bottom [5]. 3.3 Protein Meal - Viewpoint: The spot price of soybean meal remained stable, and the futures price rebounded from oversold levels [6]. - Logic: Internationally, the US soybean production outlook is optimistic, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly before the South American weather speculation. Domestically, the state reserve soybean auctions increased the market supply pressure, the seasonal de-stocking of soybean and soybean meal was slow, and the downstream consumption was weak [7]. - Outlook: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. The market is expected to be bearish in the short term [7]. 3.4 Corn and Starch - Viewpoint: The market lacked clear drivers and is expected to fluctuate [7]. - Logic: The upstream farmers are reluctant to sell, and the downstream enterprises have established a certain safety inventory. The market is in a tight balance state, and there are no major contradictions. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the old wheat auction and the rumor of state reserve release [7]. - Outlook: Fluctuation [7]. 3.5 Live Pigs - Viewpoint: The overall supply of live pigs is abundant, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - Logic: In the short term, the supply of large pigs is increasing. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand increased during the Winter Solstice, and the inventory weight increased [8]. - Outlook: Bearish in the short term, with the price expected to fluctuate in a weak range. The far-month contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [8]. 3.6 Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: The rubber price continued to fluctuate [10]. - Logic: The market lacked strong driving forces, and the geopolitical speculation was difficult to verify. The overseas supply increased seasonally, and the raw material price was firm, but there was a certain downward pressure. The downstream demand was weak, and the market sentiment was bearish [11]. - Outlook: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and it is difficult to have a trending market [11]. 3.7 Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: The sentiment in the synthetic rubber market remained strong [12]. - Logic: The BR futures contract was favored by funds due to the marginal improvement in the butadiene fundamentals and the relatively low absolute price. The butadiene price fluctuated upward last week, and the inventory pressure was slightly relieved [12]. - Outlook: Bullish in the medium term, but there is pressure at the upper level in the short term, and adjustment may be needed [12]. 3.8 Cotton - Viewpoint: The cotton price continued to strengthen [13]. - Logic: Internationally, the US cotton production decreased slightly, and the ICE cotton price had weak upward momentum. India's cotton production is expected to decrease for the second consecutive year, which may support the ICE cotton price. Domestically, the cotton supply and demand balance sheet is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory, but if the apparent demand continues to grow, the new crop may be in a tight balance, which will increase the cotton price valuation. The commercial inventory accumulation speed is slower than the listing speed, indicating good consumption. There is an expectation of a reduction in the planting area next year, and the slow registration speed of warehouse receipts is also positive for the cotton price [13]. - Outlook: Bullish in the short term due to sentiment, but beware of callback risks. Bullish in the long term, and it is advisable to buy on dips [13]. 3.9 Sugar - Viewpoint: The sugar price is searching for a bottom [14]. - Logic: Internationally, the sugar production in Brazil is expected to remain high, and the global sugar market is expected to be oversupplied in the new season. Domestically, the sugar production in November decreased year-on-year, and the supply will increase marginally with the concentrated start of the sugar cane crushing season [14][15]. - Outlook: Bearish in the medium and long term due to the expected oversupply in the global sugar market [14][15]. 3.10 Double-Offset Paper - Viewpoint: The market has no prominent contradictions and is expected to fluctuate [17]. - Logic: The supply pressure still exists, and the paper mills have a strong desire to raise prices due to continuous losses. The downstream demand is weak, and the market is in a weak balance state [17]. - Outlook: Bearish in the short term, and attention should be paid to the potential upward movement of the market if the paper mills shut down due to high inventory and continuous losses [17]. 3.11 Logs - Viewpoint: The fundamentals are expected to improve, and there is support at the bottom [19]. - Logic: The port inventory continued to decline, and the spot price stabilized. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and the overseas shipping volume is expected to decrease in December and January. The 03 contract has relatively strong gaming characteristics [19]. - Outlook: Bullish in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the reverse spread and long opportunities in the far-month contracts [19].