Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the overall market, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the medium and long - term, the idea of buying on dips is the main strategy [4]. - Different commodities have different market trends and investment strategies. For example, precious metals are expected to show strong performance; some metals like copper and aluminum have certain price support but also face resistance; and some agricultural products like sugar are expected to be bearish in the long - term but with short - term uncertainties [7][11][86]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - Market Information: Li Qiang plans major projects; the Ministry of Commerce imposes temporary anti - subsidy measures on EU dairy products; spot gold hits $4400/oz, up nearly 68% this year; Goldman Sachs expects a bull market in Chinese stocks next year, with corporate earnings potentially growing 14% in 2026 and 12% in 2027, and the stock market may rise 38% by the end of 2027 [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: At the end of the year, some funds cash in on profits, and the market faces uncertainty. But in the long - run, it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts had different declines; the 12 - month LPR remained unchanged; the central bank issued 40 billion yuan of 6 - month RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong; there was a net withdrawal of 6.36 billion yuan in liquidity on Monday [5]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The unchanged LPR is in line with expectations. The economy has stable production but weak service and demand. There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. The bond market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship repair and rebound [6]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Shanghai gold rose 1.60%, silver rose 2.30%; COMEX gold and silver had corresponding prices; the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts changed, and the Bank of Japan's policy statement affected the market [7]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The release of overseas central bank policy risks boosts market sentiment. Gold and silver prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: The unchanged LPR and strong precious metals prices pushed copper prices up. LME inventory decreased, and domestic inventories and premiums had corresponding changes [9]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The Fed's loose policy and strong precious metals support copper prices. But there is resistance due to the higher - than - expected 2026 copper concentrate processing fee and weak November consumption. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. Aluminum - Market Information: Domestic aluminum inventories increased, and prices oscillated down. LME inventory was flat, and premiums had corresponding changes [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Overall inventory is relatively low, and there is support from overseas supply disruptions and the precious metals market. But there are pressures from tariff hikes and the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate and rise [13]. Zinc - Market Information: Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also had a price increase. There were corresponding changes in inventories, premiums, and other indicators [14]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The shortage of domestic zinc ore is expected to ease. The price is expected to be weak in the medium - term but may rise in the short - term due to macro - sentiment [14]. Lead - Market Information: Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. There were changes in inventories, premiums, and other aspects [15]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Domestic lead supply is tightening, and the price is expected to be strong in a wide - range in the short - term [15]. Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices rebounded sharply. Spot premiums and cost - end prices had corresponding changes [16]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The oversupply pressure is still large, but the bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [17]. Tin - Market Information: Shanghai tin main contract price declined. The smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi had different production situations, and the demand was weak [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. The price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: The spot index and futures contract price of carbonate lithium increased [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply pressure is relieved, and the bullish trend is not over. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options lightly [21]. Alumina - Market Information: The alumina index declined, and there were changes in positions and premiums [22]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The ore price is expected to decline, and the over - capacity pattern of alumina is hard to change. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [23]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless steel main contract price rose, and there were changes in positions and spot prices [24]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The reduction of Indonesia's nickel ore production target affects the market. The actual spot trading is light. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy implementation [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. There were changes in positions, trading volume, and prices [25]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The cost is firm, and there are supply disruptions. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [26]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. There were changes in positions, spot prices, and inventories [28]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The steel market oscillates. The terminal demand is weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The winter storage willingness is not strong [29]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The iron ore main contract price rose. There were changes in positions and spot prices [30]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, and the demand for iron water declined. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill inventory was at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate [31]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: The glass main contract price declined, and the inventory increased. The soda ash main contract price also declined, and the inventory increased [32][34]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The glass demand is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate narrowly. The soda ash demand is weak, and it is advisable to short - sell [33][34]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon increased. There were changes in spot prices and premiums [35]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The market macro - sentiment is stable. The future market is affected by the black market trend, cost, and supply. Attention should be paid to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [39]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: The industrial silicon main contract price declined. The polysilicon main contract price also declined. There were changes in positions, spot prices, and inventories [40][42]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The industrial silicon supply may decrease, and the demand is weak. The polysilicon production is expected to decline, and the demand is weak. The prices are expected to fluctuate [41][43]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: The rubber price oscillated. There are different views on the market from bulls and bears. The tire enterprise operating rates and inventories had corresponding changes [45][46][47]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to operate short - term and hedge partially [50]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The INE main crude oil futures and related refined oil futures prices increased. The European ARA refined oil inventories had different changes [51]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [52]. Methanol - Market Information: The regional spot and main futures prices of methanol had corresponding changes [53]. - Strategy Viewpoint: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will consolidate. The port pressure remains, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - Market Information: The regional spot and main futures prices of urea had corresponding changes [55]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The demand has improved, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. It is recommended to buy on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The prices of pure benzene and styrene increased. There were changes in premiums, inventories, and operating rates [57]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, costs, operating rates, and inventories [59]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short - sell in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG05 contract price declined. There were changes in supply, demand, inventories, and profits [62]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply is expected to improve, but the inventory is high. Attention should be paid to the risk of price rebound [63]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA05 contract price increased. There were changes in operating rates, inventories, and processing fees [64]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply has high maintenance, and the demand will decline. It is advisable to go long on dips [65]. p - Xylene - Market Information: The PX03 contract price increased. There were changes in operating rates, inventories, and valuations [66][67]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The PX inventory is expected to increase slightly in December. It is advisable to go long on dips [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The PE main contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, operating rates, and inventories [69]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The PE valuation has limited downward space. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The PP main contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, operating rates, and inventories [71]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is seasonally weak. The inventory pressure is high. The market may be supported in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Hogs - Market Information: The domestic hog prices fluctuated. The demand after the Winter Solstice decreased but still supported the price [74]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The demand has decreased marginally, but the supply is large. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term support [75]. Eggs - Market Information: The national egg prices were mostly stable. The supply was normal, and the market trading was tepid [76]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The spot price is expected to squeeze the premium. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term pressure [77]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The CBOT soybean price increased. The domestic soybean meal price increased, and there were changes in inventories and压榨量 [78]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The import cost has a bottom, and the soybean meal is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils - Market Information: The Malaysian palm oil production and export data had different changes. The domestic oil prices rebounded [81]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The palm oil supply is large in the short - term but may reverse in the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to operate based on high - frequency data [82]. Sugar - Market Information: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The spot prices of different regions had corresponding changes. The import and production data of different countries had different changes [83][84][85]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. It is advisable to be bearish in the long - term but wait and see in the short - term [86]. Cotton - Market Information: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price increased. The spot price increased, and there were changes in import, inventory, and operating rate data [87][88]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The demand is not bad after the peak season. The price is unlikely to have a unilateral trend [89].
宏观金融类：文字早评2025/12/23-20251223
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-12-23 01:10