格林大华期货早盘提示：纯苯-20251223

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillating Bullish" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of the main futures contract BZ2603 rose by 60 yuan to 5483 yuan/ton on Monday night, and the spot prices in East China and Shandong increased. The long - position decreased by 50 lots to 16,700 lots, and the short - position increased by 4 to 18,800 lots. The short - term price of pure benzene is expected to oscillate strongly, with the 03 contract reference range of 5420 - 5530 yuan/ton. Traders are advised to hold long positions [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The price of the main futures contract BZ2603 rose by 60 yuan to 5483 yuan/ton on Monday night. The spot price in East China was 5325 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan from the previous period), and in Shandong, it was 5156 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan from the previous period). The long - position decreased by 50 lots to 16,700 lots, and the short - position increased by 4 to 18,800 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: In November 2025, the domestic pure benzene output was 1.918 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.93%. There were many planned overhauls in December. In October, the import volume was 496,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.1%. A refinery in East China plans to overhaul a 10 - million - ton atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit and a reforming unit in January 2026, affecting a pure benzene production capacity of 600,000 tons. In November 2025, the monthly import volume was 459,624.998 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.48% but a year - on - year increase of 5.93%. The cumulative import volume increased by 33.61% compared to the same period last year [1] - Inventory: As of December 22, 2025, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Chinese ports was 293,000 tons, a 13,000 - ton increase (4.6% month - on - month) from the previous period. From December 15th to 21st, the estimated arrival was about 33,000 tons, and the pick - up was about 20,000 tons [1] - Demand: The styrene operating rate was 69.1% (up 1% month - on - month), the phenol operating rate was 75% (down 4% month - on - month), the caprolactam operating rate was 74.1% (down 0.4% month - on - month), the aniline operating rate was 61.3% (down 14.6% month - on - month), and the adipic acid operating rate was 59.6% (up 0.4% month - on - month). Caprolactam factories started to cut production voluntarily, and there was an expected reduction in monthly pure benzene demand from December 2025 to January 2026. The second production line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam project was put into operation [1] - International Oil Prices: Due to concerns about the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.49 dollars to 58.01 dollars/barrel (a 2.64% month - on - month increase), the ICE Brent crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.60 dollars to 62.07 dollars/barrel (a 2.65% month - on - month increase). The China INE crude oil futures 2602 contract rose 5.2 to 432.6 yuan/ton and 8.7 to 441.3 yuan/ton in night trading [1] - US Economic Data: The US November CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January 2026 rose from 26.6% to 28.8%, and traders bet that the Fed would cut interest rates by 62 basis points next year [1] Market Logic - The opening of the Asia - America regional arbitrage window may ease future port arrival pressure. Crude oil rebounded from a low this week. The pure benzene port inventory increased slightly but at a slower pace, and the downstream operating rate on the demand side declined. The transaction prices in East China and Shandong rebounded yesterday. The short - term price of pure benzene is expected to oscillate strongly. Future attention should be paid to port arrival volume and the future US - dollar - denominated pure benzene market transaction price [1] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions [1]