格林大华期货早盘提示：全球经济-20251223

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economy is rated as (turning weak) [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy is turning weak as the US makes a series of wrong policies and returns to the Monroe Doctrine, which will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Precious metals soar, with spot gold above 4400, silver hitting a new high, and platinum breaking the $2000 mark for the first time in 16 years due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations and geopolitical risks [1] - Wall Street expects high volatility in US stocks in 2026, and suggests a hedging strategy of going long on the Nasdaq 100 index volatility and short on the S&P 500 index volatility [1] - Dalio warns that the current market wealth based on unfulfilled expectations may lead to market adjustments or crises when converted to money [1] - The shipment of NVIDIA's GB300 AI server cabinets is expected to reach 55,000 units next year, a 129% year - on - year increase, driven by tech giants, and the next - generation Vera Rubin 200 platform will start shipping in Q4 next year [1] - The AI data center construction boom attracts various players, but there are concerns about AI bubbles due to project delays and contract terminations [1] - The US is promoting large - scale space militarization, with a $3.5 billion military satellite order issued [1] - Musk's net worth soars to $749 billion, becoming the first person to exceed $700 billion, due to a court decision on Tesla stock options [1] - The "stable return" myth for retail investors on Wall Street is broken, with BDC stocks of top institutions plummeting and bad loan rates rising [1] Global Economic Logic - Israel's potential attack on Iran causes gold prices to hit new highs, and the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points in December and buys $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly [2] - Trump wants the next Fed chair to believe in "substantial rate cuts", and some traders are betting on a Q1 rate cut [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the 2008 financial crisis warning [2] - The US releases a new National Security Strategy, adjusting economic relations with China to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer divide in the US, with high - income spending remaining resilient and low - income tightening belts [2] - The Bank of Japan raises rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield rises to 2.0% [2] - Google aims to double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years [2] - NVIDIA's Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI race due to regulatory and energy cost advantages [2] - JPMorgan estimates that AI data center construction will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - The US unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, raising concerns about large - scale corporate layoffs as an economic warning [2]