原油：短期继续观望，择机逢高再空

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term continued observation of crude oil and recommends shorting at high prices when the opportunity arises [1] 2. Core View - The report provides price changes of international crude oil futures and analyzes the arbitrage situations of different crude oil varieties in multiple regions [1] 3. Content Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures 01 contract rose $0.51 per barrel, a 0.91% increase, to $56.66 per barrel; ICE Brent futures 02 contract rose $0.65 per barrel, a 1.09% increase, to $60.47 per barrel; SC2602 crude oil futures rose 4.50 yuan per barrel, a 1.05% increase, to 431.90 yuan per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of various crude oil varieties such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, etc., were closed, with negative arbitrage spaces, indicating weak competitiveness or no cost - advantage [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties, Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals crude oils presented arbitrage opportunities, with arbitrage spaces of +0.55, +0.27, +2.72, and +26.47 USD/Bbl respectively; Cabinda crude oil had insufficient competitiveness [4] Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light crude oils had arbitrage opportunities, while Azeri Light crude oil's arbitrage window was closed [6] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk, and Eagle Ford crude oils were all closed, showing weak competitiveness [7][8] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Eagle Ford crude oil was the only one presenting an arbitrage opportunity with an arbitrage space of +1.04 USD/Bbl; Murban, Dubai, Bonny Light, and WTI MEH crude oils' arbitrage windows were closed [8] Key Market News - Trump mentioned stances on Venezuela; China's refined oil exports in November 2025 increased; Shandong independent refineries' crude oil arrivals increased; the exchange will waive delivery commodity registration fees from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026 [9][10] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral stance [11]