Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market trends, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector. Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - Stock Index Futures: Anticipated to rise in a volatile manner. The market showed an overall upward trend on Monday, with major indices rising. The contract prices also increased, but trading volume and open interest decreased in some varieties. It's recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy, conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage when the discount widens, and use a double - buying options strategy [20][21][22]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Bond market sentiment was under pressure. Futures prices fell across the board on Monday, and the spot yield was divided. It's advisable to buy the TL contract on dips, with caution on chasing highs and timely profit - taking, and to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [22][23]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The market is in a stage of stability with a large decline in the price. The international soybean supply is abundant, and the domestic soybean meal has price support but limited sustainability. It's recommended to take a bearish view, narrow the MRM spread, and use a short - straddle options strategy [25][26][27]. - Sugar: International sugar prices are rising, while domestic sugar prices are in adjustment after a significant decline. International supply pressure is easing, and the domestic market has supply and cost factors at play. It's suggested to expect bottom - range fluctuations for international sugar and a shock - adjustment trend for domestic sugar, conduct a long - January and short - May arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [28][29][30]. - Oilseeds and Oils: There is a technical rebound. Domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing slightly, and there is limited upward momentum due to factors such as slow de - stocking of Malaysian palm oil. It's recommended to consider buying palm oil on dips for a rebound, with a view of shorting after the rebound, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [32][33][34]. - Corn/Corn Starch: Spot prices are stable, and the futures market is in bottom - range oscillations. U.S. corn shows a strong trend, and domestic corn has different trends in different regions. It's advisable to buy on dips for the 03 and 07 contracts and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [35][36]. - Live Pigs: The market has a large supply, and spot prices are in a stage of stability. The overall supply pressure remains, and it's recommended to hold short positions, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a short - straddle options strategy [37][38]. - Peanuts: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is in a weak - range oscillation. The supply of oil peanuts is abundant, and it's suggested to short the 03 contract on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [39][40][41]. - Eggs: Demand is average, and prices are falling. The supply pressure has eased slightly, and it's recommended to expect range - bound oscillations for near - term contracts and consider going long on the far - term May contract on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [43][44][45]. - Apples: Demand is average, and prices are stable. The apple yield has decreased this year, and the effective inventory is likely to be low. It's advisable to expect limited downward space, conduct a long - 1 and short - 10 arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [46][47][48]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: New cotton sales are good, and prices are rising in a volatile manner. The new cotton sales progress is fast, and there are positive factors such as potential reduction in planting area and expansion of textile capacity. It's recommended to expect range - bound oscillations for U.S. cotton and a rising trend for Chinese cotton, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [49][50][51]. Black Metals - Steel: The price is expected to oscillate within a range as the restocking expectation remains to be fulfilled. The black sector was in a volatile and strong trend at night, with changes in steel production, inventory, and demand. It's advisable to expect a volatile and strong trend, short the hot - rolled coil - coking coal ratio and hold the short - hot - rolled coil and long - rebar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [54][55]. - Coking Coal and Coke: There is a bottom - rebound, and attention should be paid to the change in trading logic. The coking coal auction situation has improved, but Mongolian coal brings pressure. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines or buy on dips with light positions, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [56][58][59]. - Iron Ore: The price is expected to oscillate as market expectations are fluctuating. The global iron ore supply is abundant, and domestic demand is weak. It's advisable to expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [60][61]. - Ferroalloys: There is a short - term rebound due to cost support and anti - cut - throat competition expectations. The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is decreasing, and there is cost support. It's recommended to expect a short - term rebound, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell a short - straddle options combination [62][63]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: Geopolitical tensions and interest - rate cut expectations drive the price up. Gold reached a new high, and silver also hit a record high. It's recommended to hold long positions for Shanghai gold based on the previous high and hold long positions for Shanghai silver cautiously based on the 5 - day moving average, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options [64][65][67]. - Platinum and Palladium: The trading enthusiasm is high, and attention should be paid to position management. The market shows a strong trend, and it's advisable to go long on dips based on the MA5, conduct a long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [68][69][70]. - Copper: It's recommended to buy after a full correction. The price is affected by factors such as long - term contract processing fees, inventory, and market sentiment. It's advisable to expect a short - term strong oscillation and a long - term upward trend, conduct a calendar spread arbitrage, and sell put options [71][72][73]. - Alumina: The price is in a weak - range oscillation. Spot prices are falling, and there are factors such as bauxite supply and inventory. It's advisable to expect a weak - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [74][75][76]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The price is oscillating at a high level with strong fundamental support. The global shortage situation persists, and domestic demand has resilience. It's recommended to expect a medium - term upward trend after a correction, conduct an arbitrage when the import loss widens, and stay on the sidelines for options [79]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The price is oscillating at a high level as the supply of scrap aluminum is tight. The cost provides support, but demand is weakening. It's advisable to expect a high - level oscillation, conduct an arbitrage when the price corrects, and stay on the sidelines for options [80][81]. - Zinc: The price is oscillating widely as there are both bullish and bearish factors. The market is affected by supply, demand, and inventory. It's advisable to expect a wide - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [82][83][84]. - Lead: The price is oscillating within a range as supply and demand are both weak. The price is affected by factors such as environmental protection and inventory. It's advisable to expect a range - bound oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [85][86][87]. - Nickel: The price is rising due to Indonesia's policy expectations. The market is affected by import data and policy expectations. It's advisable to expect an upward test of resistance, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a bull - spread options strategy [87][88][89]. - Stainless Steel: The price is following nickel and showing a strong trend. The price is supported by factors such as inventory and resource tightness. It's advisable to expect a wide - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [90][92]. - Industrial Silicon: It's recommended to sell on rallies. The supply is in a state of inventory accumulation, and demand is weak. It's advisable to sell on rallies, conduct a long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [93]. - Polysilicon: It's in a long - term upward trend, but short - term risk management is necessary. There are positive factors in the long - term, but short - term demand is weak. It's advisable to be cautious in the short - term, conduct a long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell put options [94][95]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price is highly volatile at a high level, and cautious operation is recommended. The import data and market sentiment affect the price. It's advisable to operate cautiously, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [96][97][98]. - Tin: The price may be adjusted at a high level as the raw material supply remains tight. The import of tin concentrate has recovered, but downstream consumption is weak. It's advisable to expect a high - level adjustment, stay on the sidelines for options [99][100]. Shipping - Container Shipping: The SCFIS index fails to meet expectations, and the 12 - contract is expected to correct downward. The spot freight rate has improved, but the index is affected by low - price goods. It's recommended to take profit on most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract and pay attention to the freight volume improvement, and expect the far - term contract to be under pressure, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [101][102][104]. Energy Chemicals - Crude Oil: The price is recovering due to geopolitical tensions. The settlement price of crude oil futures has increased. It's advisable to expect a weak - oscillating trend, conduct an arbitrage on gasoline, diesel, and crude oil spreads, and stay on the sidelines for options [106][107]. - Asphalt: The raw material has risks, and the spot price is under pressure. The price is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and cost. It's advisable to expect a wide - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [108][109][110]. - Fuel Oil: The fundamentals of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are in a weak - oscillating state. The market is affected by supply, demand, and inventory. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, conduct an arbitrage on the cracking spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [111][113][114]. - Natural Gas: LNG is oscillating at a low level, and HH is waiting for guidance. The price is affected by weather and demand. It's advisable to buy the HH2602 contract for aggressive investors, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell TTF call options [115][116][117]. - LPG: The upward space is limited. The market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand. It's advisable to short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [118][119]. - PX & PTA: The cost center has risen, and polyester sales have declined. The price is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a strong - oscillating trend, conduct a calendar spread arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [120][121][122]. - BZ & EB: Pure benzene supply is abundant, and styrene export boosts market sentiment. The price is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a strong - oscillating trend, short pure benzene and long styrene, and stay on the sidelines for options [123][124][126]. - Ethylene Glycol: There is great pressure on inventory reduction. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a short - term oscillation and a medium - term weak trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [128][129]. - Short - Fiber: It rebounds following the cost, but the supply - demand situation is weak. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a strong - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [130][132]. - Bottle Chip: It rebounds following the cost, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a strong - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [133][134]. - Propylene: Supply and demand are weak, and downstream profit improvement is poor with no obvious increase in开工. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a short - straddle options strategy [135][136]. - Plastic PP: The growth rate of primary plastic production has slightly narrowed. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to hold short positions in the L - 2605 contract and set a stop - loss, and try long positions in the PP - 2605 contract with a stop - loss, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [137][138]. - Caustic Soda: The price is oscillating. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [140][142]. - PVC: The price is continuing to rebound. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a weak rebound, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [143][144]. - Soda Ash: The futures price is continuing to decline. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a weak - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options on the far - term contract [146][147]. - Glass: The futures price is in a weak trend. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a weak - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [148][149]. - Methanol: The price is oscillating within a range. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect an oscillating and strong trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [150][152]. - Urea: Downstream resists high prices. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to go long on the 05 contract, conduct a 5 - 9 calendar spread arbitrage, and sell put options on dips [153][154]. - Pulp: The price is oscillating widely at a high level with weak reality and strong expectation. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines or short on a small scale for aggressive investors, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [155][156][158]. - Logs: The spot market is stable, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt registration. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines, conduct a 3 - 5 reverse calendar spread arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [161][162]. - Offset Printing Paper: The inventory has reached a new high, and cost support is weak. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines and short, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the OP2602 - C - 4100 option [165][166]. - Natural Rubber: The growth rate of tire exports has narrowed. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines for the RU - 05 contract and the NR - 02 contract, hold the RU2605 - NR2605 spread with a stop - loss, and stay on the sidelines for options [167][168][169]. - Butadiene Rubber: Tire exports are increasing month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline is narrowing. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines for the BR - 02 contract, hold the BR2602 - NR2602 spread with a stop - loss, and stay on the sidelines for options [170][171][172].
银河期货每日早盘观察-20251223
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-12-23 01:34