Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Based on fundamental analysis, different futures varieties are classified into different trends such as trend空头, 震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and 趋势多头 [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, futures varieties are classified into 偏空, 震荡, and 偏多 trends [6]. - The overall A - share market showed an upward trend with increased trading volume, but the 12 - month economic data may still be weak, and the overseas data has some uncertainties. The stock index continued to rebound, and attention should be paid to its sustainability [8][9]. - The short - and medium - term bonds may fluctuate moderately upward, but the odds are more important than the direction. Without interest rate cuts, the sentiment in the market may decline [10]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a bearish view on rallies in the medium and long term. The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate upward in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. The silicon alloys should be considered bearish on rallies in the medium term [11][13][15]. - For soda ash, the strategy is to wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [16]. - The price of Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate downward after the macro - positive factors fade. The price of Shanghai lead is expected to maintain a low - inventory level, and the previous short positions are recommended to continue to be held. The price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely in the long - term, with a short - term weakening demand and possible short - term correction [18][19]. - For industrial silicon, there is a possibility of partial valuation repair; for polysilicon, the spot price is expected to remain strong [21]. - For cotton, short - term long positions need to be cautious. For sugar, it is advisable to wait and see. For eggs, the contracts after the Spring Festival are under pressure, and the far - month contracts have support. For apples, the price will fluctuate. For corn, it is advisable to go short on the 03 contract and control the position or choose the 3 - 7 reverse spread. For red dates, the market will fluctuate. For live pigs, the spot price is expected to fluctuate downward, and it is advisable to go short on the near - month contracts [23][26][28][30][31][32][33]. - For crude oil, it needs to be vigilant against the price increase caused by the further escalation of the Venezuelan situation in the short term. For fuel oil, the price will follow the oil price. For plastics, it is advisable to consider a weakening and fluctuating trend. For rubber, the short - term strategy of shorting the ru - nr spread should stop profit and wait and see. For synthetic rubber, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term. For methanol, the near - month contracts may have a slight rebound, and the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after the inventory is smoothly reduced. For caustic soda, avoid long positions in the near - month contracts and hold long positions in the main contract dynamically. For asphalt, the price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. For the polyester industry chain, it is advisable to go long lightly at low prices. For liquefied petroleum gas, the price will fluctuate. For pulp, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term. For logs, the price will fluctuate. For urea, it is advisable to maintain a fluctuating view [34][36][37][38][39][41][42][43][45][46][47]. Summary by Directory Futures Trend Based on Fundamental Analysis - Trend空头: Ethylene glycol, lithium carbonate, manganese silicon, silicon iron, live pigs, eggs, plastic [2]. - 震荡偏空: Liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, polycrystalline silicon [2]. - 震荡: Short - fiber, bottle - piece, p - xylene, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Stock Index Futures, ten - year bond, five - year bond, thirty - year bond, CSI 300 Stock Index Futures, CSI 1000 Index Futures, CSI 500 Stock Index Futures, two - year bond, cotton, zinc, synthetic rubber, rubber, log, pulp, caustic soda, offset printing paper, corn, red dates, urea, apple, rebar, iron ore, hot - rolled coil, glass, soda ash [2]. - 震荡偏多: None provided in the given content. - 趋势多头: None provided in the given content. Futures Trend Based on Quantitative Indicators - 偏空: Coke, PTA, Zhengzhou cotton, glass, manganese silicon, PVC, Shanghai silver [6]. - 震荡: Rebar, plastic, hot - rolled coil, palm oil, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai aluminum, Shanghai copper, corn starch, soybean No. 2, soybean No. 1, Shanghai lead, rubber, polypropylene, Shanghai tin, asphalt, methanol, corn, Shanghai gold, coking coal [6]. - 偏多: Rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, iron ore, eggs, sugar, soybean oil [6]. Macro News - The central bank launched a one - time credit repair policy for small - amount overdue personal information. - Vanke's 2 billion yuan bond extension plan was rejected again. - The State Council held a meeting on the preparation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" outline. - Precious metals prices soared, and Wall Street was optimistic about the continued rise of gold prices. - China's December LPR remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. - The Central Economic Work Conference deployed multiple key - area reform tasks. - BYD confirmed the salary increase for R & D staff. - The Ukrainian delegation completed negotiations with the US and returned to Ukraine. - Trump will appoint a new Fed chairman in early January next year. - The Trump administration increased the cash subsidy for illegal immigrants' voluntary departure. - The EU extended economic sanctions against Russia for six months. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange took measures to cool down the silver futures market [8]. Macro - Financial Market Stock Index Futures - The A - share market rose with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69% to 3917.36, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.23%. The trading volume was 1.88 trillion yuan, a net increase of 130 billion yuan from the previous day. The 12 - month economic data may be weak, and the overseas data has uncertainties. The stock index continued to rebound, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the liquidity repair and the structure. If it is realized, the index may strengthen, and attention should be paid to IH [8][9]. Treasury Bond Futures - The funds were moderately loose, and the short - and medium - term bonds may fluctuate moderately upward, but the odds are more important than the direction. Without interest rate cuts, the market sentiment may decline. The 10 - year - and - below bonds are mainly supported by the decline of the funds' central level, and the ultra - long - term bonds are relatively weak. The curve is continuously steep. It is advisable to observe the MLF renewal operation and bond - buying logic first [10]. Black Market Steel and Ore - Policy: The Central Economic Work Conference met market expectations but had no new policies. The supply - side should pay attention to the deployment of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology at the end of December. - Fundamentals: The demand for building materials was weak, and there was an expectation of further decline in the off - season. The demand for coils was good, and the apparent demand was acceptable. The steel mills' profits were at a low level, and the iron - water output was expected to continue to decline. The inventory of five major steel products decreased month - on - month but remained high compared with last year. - Valuation: The raw - material futures prices were fluctuating weakly, and the cost was expected to continue to decrease. - Trend: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a bearish view on rallies in the medium and long term [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke - The price may fluctuate upward in the short term, but it is necessary to pay attention to the disturbances from coal - mine production, safety inspections, and the downstream winter - storage progress and iron - water output changes. In the medium term, the domestic mine's production rate is restricted by policies. In the short term, the coal supply has a contraction expectation, and the potential negative feedback from the weakening steel demand restricts the price increase. The inventory of upstream enterprises has increased, and the downstream replenishment is slow. The price may have a phased rebound, but the space is limited [13][14]. Ferroalloys - The hedging pressure of silicon alloys increases with the rising price. For manganese silicon, the cost is expected to decrease by about 25 yuan/ton. In the short term, pay attention to the possibility of the resumption of silicon - iron plants and the new - capacity launch of manganese silicon. In the medium term, both silicon alloys should be considered bearish on rallies [15]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash: Some production - reduction enterprises have resumed production, but the supply may be affected by cost and new - capacity launch. It is advisable to wait and see. - Glass: There is an expectation of production reduction, but the impact on the market is gradually weakening. It is advisable to try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Shanghai Zinc - As of December 22, the domestic zinc inventory increased. The price is expected to fluctuate downward after the macro - positive factors fade. It is advisable to hold short positions [18]. Shanghai Lead - As of December 22, the lead inventory decreased. It is expected to maintain a low - inventory level. It is advisable to continue to hold short positions [18][19]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term demand is weakening. It may have a short - term correction after the market sentiment returns to rationality, but it will rise in the long - term and fluctuate widely [19][20]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: It is difficult to see production reduction in the short term, but there is a possibility of partial valuation repair. It may gradually shift to the game of polysilicon production - reduction expectations. - Polysilicon: The new delivery warehouses may put pressure on the near - month contracts in the short term. The spot price is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to the manufacturers' trading willingness [21]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, and the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The short - term long positions need to be cautious [23][24][25]. Sugar - The domestic and international sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. The new - sugar listing pressure will suppress the price. The Zhengzhou sugar price is undervalued. It is advisable to wait and see [26][27]. Eggs - The spot price has not risen as expected recently. The contracts after the Spring Festival are under pressure, and the far - month contracts have support. It is advisable to wait and see [28][29]. Apples - The apple delivery is slightly less year - on - year, the sales in the distribution area are slow, and the price of high - quality goods is firm. The price will fluctuate [30][31]. Corn - It is advisable to go short on the 03 contract and control the position or choose the 3 - 7 reverse spread. The supply - and - demand mismatch is being alleviated, and the far - month contracts are under supply pressure [31]. Red Dates - The market is in the digestion stage of new - product arrival, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream sales and procurement [32]. Live Pigs - The supply - exceeds - demand situation remains unchanged. The spot price is expected to fluctuate downward. It is advisable to go short on the near - month contracts and control the position [33]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - The situation in Venezuela has led to a rapid rebound in oil prices. In the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant against the price increase caused by the further escalation of the situation. In the medium - term, the oil price is under pressure due to the new supply wave and weakening demand [34][35]. Fuel Oil - The price is affected by geopolitics and the macro - environment. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The price will follow the oil price [36]. Plastics - The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. The price may fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to consider a weakening and fluctuating trend [37]. Rubber - The short - term strategy of shorting the ru - nr spread should stop profit and wait and see. It is advisable to go long on dips with a stop - loss [37][38]. Synthetic Rubber - It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and be cautious about chasing up or down. The price is affected by raw - material prices, downstream procurement, and funds [39]. Methanol - The supply and demand situation has improved slightly, and the inventory has started to decrease. The near - month contracts may have a slight rebound, and the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after the inventory is smoothly reduced [39][40]. Caustic Soda - The near - month contracts should avoid long positions, and the long positions in the main contract should be held dynamically. The price is affected by the spot market and the overall commodity market [41]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The raw - material supply is affected by geopolitics [42]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is advisable to go long lightly at low prices. The PX price is expected to be strong, the PTA price follows the cost, the ethylene glycol price is relatively weak, and the short - fiber price has limited follow - up power [43]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price will fluctuate. The supply in the Middle East is tight, but the overall supply is abundant. The demand in winter is strong, but the chemical - industry pressure is high [43][44]. Pulp - The fundamentals are improving, and the price is pushed up by funds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term and consider option - selling strategies for high - cost positions [45]. Logs - The fundamentals are in a weak balance, and the price will fluctuate. The import volume has increased, and the external market price has a downward trend [46]. Urea - It is advisable to maintain a fluctuating view. The spot market is affected by coal prices and environmental protection policies. The futures market is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the demand recovery after the end of environmental protection restrictions [47].
中泰期货晨会纪要-20251223
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-12-23 01:33