招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The gold market shows strength with the Fed's expected rate - cut, suggesting a long - position for gold and a wait - and - see approach for silver [1]. - For base metals, different strategies are recommended for each metal based on their market performance, fundamentals, such as buying copper on dips, expecting aluminum to oscillate in the short - term, and predicting alumina to decline with oscillations [2]. - In the black industry, a wait - and - see approach is generally recommended, with attempts to short certain contracts like螺纹2605 and焦煤09 [5]. - In the agricultural products market, various trading strategies are proposed according to the supply - demand situation of different products, such as trading South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports for soybeans, and shorting sugar futures [6]. - For energy and chemical products, different trading strategies are given based on the supply - demand balance, including short - term oscillations and long - term improvement for some products, and short - selling for others [7][8]. 3. Summary by Category Gold and Precious Metals - Market Performance: International gold prices broke through and strengthened, standing above $4400 per ounce, and domestic gold prices exceeded 1000 yuan. Silver inventories showed different trends in different markets [1]. - Fundamentals: Fed officials' statements, geopolitical events, and inventory changes in gold and silver affected the market. For example, the Fed may not cut rates until next spring, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different exchanges and ETFs [1]. - Trading Strategy: Long gold and wait - and - see for silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices oscillated [2]. - Fundamentals: The implementation time of US refined copper tariffs may be postponed, and the supply of copper mines remained tight [2]. - Trading Strategy: Buy on dips [2]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.16% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Fundamentals: Aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: Expect aluminum prices to oscillate in the short - term within the current high - level range [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.08% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Fundamentals: Alumina plants' operating capacity remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategy: Expect alumina prices to decline with oscillations [2]. Zinc - Market Performance: The closing price of the沪锌2601 contract increased by 0.09% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories increased [3]. - Fundamentals: LME zinc inventories increased significantly, and the consumption off - season deepened [3]. - Trading Strategy: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - Market Performance: The closing price of the沪铅2601 contract increased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories decreased [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply of primary lead recovered after maintenance, while the supply of recycled lead decreased significantly. The lead battery start - up rate decreased slightly [3]. - Trading Strategy: Trade within a range, with a focus on long - positions at low prices [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract decreased by 1.09% compared to the previous trading day, and the position increased [3]. - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces decreased, and social inventories decreased. The demand from related industries remained stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: Expect the price to oscillate weakly in the range of 8000 - 9000, and adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 increased by 2.7% [3]. - Fundamentals: The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased, production increased, and demand decreased in some sectors. December saw inventory reduction [3]. - Trading Strategy: Expect short - term price increase with oscillations [3]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract decreased by 2.32% compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased [4]. - Fundamentals: Supply remained stable, demand decreased, and inventories increased slightly [4]. - Trading Strategy: Consider long - positions on dips after the price returns to the spot trading range [4]. Black Industry Steel - Market Performance: The螺纹2605 contract increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: Steel mills continued to make losses, production might decline marginally, and the futures were at a large discount [5]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short螺纹2605 [5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The铁矿2605 contract decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: Iron ore supply and demand were weak, and the port inventory increased [5]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The焦煤2605 contract increased by 19 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: Coking coal supply and demand were weak, and the futures were at a premium [5]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short焦煤09 [5]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: The CBOT soybean rebounded overnight [6]. - Fundamentals: Global soybean supply - demand is expected to be loose, with strong US soybean crushing and slow exports [6]. - Trading Strategy: Trade South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports, and the domestic market is driven down by cost in the short - term [6]. Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices are weak, and spot prices slightly declined [6]. - Fundamentals: The grain - selling progress slowed down, and downstream demand decreased [6]. - Trading Strategy: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose in the short - term [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply is in seasonal decline but with year - on - year growth, and demand shows an increase in exports [6]. - Trading Strategy: Oils and fats may enter an oscillation phase with product differentiation [6]. Sugar - Market Performance: The郑糖05 contract increased by 0.41% [6]. - Fundamentals: International sugar prices rebounded slightly, and the domestic market followed with a smaller increase. The long - term global sugar production is expected to increase [6]. - Trading Strategy: Short sugar futures and sell call options [6]. Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices are weak, and spot prices increased [6]. - Fundamentals: The inventory of laying hens decreased, and demand is affected by price changes [6]. - Trading Strategy: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - Market Performance: Pig futures prices oscillate, and spot prices show a north - up and south - down pattern [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply is still abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally [6]. - Trading Strategy: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Energy and Chemical Products LLDPE - Market Performance: The LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure eases, and demand weakens in the agricultural film sector [7]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [7]. PVC - Market Performance: V05 decreased by 1.7% [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply increases, demand weakens, and inventory is at a high level [7]. - Trading Strategy: Short - sell or use reverse spreads [7]. PTA - Market Performance: PX and PTA prices are at certain levels with a specific basis [7]. - Fundamentals: PX supply is high, and PTA has short - term supply decline and medium - term inventory accumulation pressure [7]. - Trading Strategy: Long - position PX in the medium - term and look for opportunities to long PTA processing margins in 05 [7]. Glass - Market Performance: fg05 decreased by 1.5% [7]. - Fundamentals: Glass prices decline, and inventory accumulates. Supply and demand are both weak [7]. - Trading Strategy: Use reverse spreads [7]. PP - Market Performance: The PP main contract continued to decline slightly [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply increases, demand weakens, and the export window opens [8]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [8]. MEG - Market Performance: MEG has a certain spot price and basis [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply is high, inventory accumulates, and demand weakens in the off - season [8]. - Trading Strategy: Take profit in the short - term and look for inventory reduction opportunities in the medium - term for 05 [8]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices rose due to short - term supply reduction [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure is large, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - Trading Strategy: Short - sell crude oil on rallies [8]. Styrene - Market Performance: The EB main contract rebounded slightly [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply is weak in the short - term, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for styrene and related spreads in the second quarter [8]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: sa05 decreased by 0.8% [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply increases with new device production, and demand from photovoltaic glass is weak with high inventory [9]. - Trading Strategy: Use reverse spreads [9].