国新国证期货早报-20251223

Group 1: Market Performance on December 22, 2025 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69% to 3917.36, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47% to 13332.73, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.23% to 3191.98. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1861.9 billion yuan, an increase of 136 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Stock index futures: The CSI 300 index was strong, closing at 4611.62, a rise of 43.45 [2] - Coal futures: The coke weighted index maintained strength, closing at 1717.3, a rise of 24.4; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated and sorted, closing at 1098.1 yuan, a rise of 6.1 [2][3] - Other futures: The closing prices and changes of various futures on December 22 are as follows: Zheng sugar 2605 contract, palm oil P2605, Shanghai copper CU2602, cotton, iron ore 2605, asphalt 2605, log 2603, steel rb2605 and hc2605, alumina ao2601, and Shanghai aluminum al2602 [1][2][3][4][6][8] Group 2: Factors Affecting Futures Prices - Coke and coking coal: For coke, after the previous sharp price drop, downstream increased the procurement of cost-effective raw coal, and news such as "anti-involution" in China and Indonesia's export tax boosted market sentiment in the short term; for coking coal, the overall supply in the producing areas continued to shrink, and the high volume of Mongolian coal clearance and rising port inventory brought pressure to domestic coal [4] - Zheng sugar: Affected by factors such as the rebound of US sugar, the decline in imports in November, and the increase in spot quotes, short positions were closed, pushing the Zheng sugar 2605 contract to rise [4] - Rubber: Due to a large short-term decline, affected by technical factors, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly lower on Monday; at night, supported by short covering, it fluctuated slightly higher [4] - Soybean meal: Internationally, factors such as the rise in crude oil prices and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the price of US soybeans; domestically, the supply of soybeans was abundant, and the supply pressure of soybean meal was significant [4][6] - Pig: The supply of live pigs remained high, while the demand showed marginal improvement, and the increase in consumption demand boosted pig prices to some extent [6] - Palm oil: Affected by the warming of the external crude oil and the overall oil market, palm oil rebounded rapidly from a low level; the production in Malaysia decreased, while exports increased [6] - Shanghai copper: The decline in copper ore processing fees, the expansion of smelting losses, and the weakening of the US dollar and rising interest rate cut expectations supported the price increase [6] - Iron ore: The supply increased while the demand decreased, and the price fluctuated in the short term [6] - Asphalt: Supply increased, inventory decreased slightly, demand in the off-season continued to shrink, and the price fluctuated [6] - Log: There was no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and subsequent attention should be paid to factors such as spot prices, import data, and inventory changes [8] - Steel: The supply - demand situation was weak, but due to cost support, the price might fluctuate upward [8] - Alumina: Although production decreased slightly due to maintenance, the overall supply was still in excess, and inventory accumulation put pressure on prices [8] - Shanghai aluminum: The production was stable, inventory continued to accumulate, and demand showed regional differences [8] Group 3: Future Focus - Soybean meal: Focus on extreme weather changes in South America and soybean arrivals [6] - Pig: Pay attention to the changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the progress of cured meat consumption [6] - Iron ore: Follow the return of year - end funds, inventory changes, and macro - policy trends [6] - Log: Monitor spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [8]