Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate. Terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within the bottom range. Winter storage has started in some areas, but the willingness to store this year is low, and large - scale restocking may not occur. The macro - level is in a policy window period, and attention should be paid to whether the "dual - carbon" policy will be strengthened again and have a marginal impact on the steel industry [2]. - For iron ore, the recent market environment is relatively mild. After the decline of hot metal to the current level, the marginal pressure may ease. The Spring Festival in 2026 is late, and the restocking time is postponed. The current low inventory of steel mills provides some room for restocking demand. It is expected that the iron ore price will mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. - Regarding manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market will be led by the direction of the black sector. For manganese silicon, the cost push from manganese ore is a key factor, and for ferrosilicon, supply contraction due to losses is important. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, its own driving force is not strong. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - For polysilicon, the gap between expectations and reality and the differentiation between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain continue. The futures price trend is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [16]. - For glass, the demand recovery is still weak, and it is expected to continue to oscillate narrowly in the short term [19]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is limited. Short positions can be considered [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - Market Information: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3126 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.224%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 60684 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 23108 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3277 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.244%). The registered warehouse receipts increased by 889 tons, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 2627 lots [1]. - Strategy: Rebar's supply and demand both increased this week, and inventory continued to decline, showing off - season characteristics. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased significantly, apparent demand declined slightly, and inventory continued to fall. Overall, terminal demand is weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [2]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 781.50 yuan/ton, up 0.19% (+1.50). The open interest increased by 17048 lots to 55.20 million lots. The weighted open interest was 93.42 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 62.04 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.36% [4]. - Strategy: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased in the latest period. The daily average hot - metal output continued to decline, and the environmental protection restrictions in Hebei increased. The port inventory continued to rise, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory reached the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. It is expected that the iron ore price will mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: On December 22, the manganese silicon main contract (SM603) closed up 0.55% at 5840 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 70 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 0.07% at 5644 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 56 yuan/ton [8]. - Strategy: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most factors have been priced in. For ferrosilicon, supply has decreased due to losses. The future market will be affected by the black sector, manganese ore cost for manganese silicon, and supply contraction for ferrosilicon. Attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon - Market Information: The main industrial silicon contract (SI2605) closed at 8595 yuan/ton, down 1.09% (-95). The weighted open interest increased by 9649 lots to 416714 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China were stable, with basis values of 605 yuan/ton and 255 yuan/ton respectively [12]. - Strategy: The industrial silicon price oscillated downward. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the demand support from polysilicon weakened. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - Polysilicon - Market Information: The main polysilicon contract (PS2605) closed at 58845 yuan/ton, down 2.32% (-1400). The weighted open interest decreased by 13275 lots to 234572 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were stable, with a basis of - 6445 yuan/ton [14]. - Strategy: The polysilicon output is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation pressure is difficult to relieve before the Spring Festival. The futures price trend is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [16]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Market Information: The glass main contract closed at 1031 yuan/ton on Monday, down 0.96% (-10). The prices in North China and Central China were stable. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 331000 boxes (+0.57%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 18027 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 29200 short positions [18]. - Strategy: The demand recovery is weak, and it is expected to continue to oscillate narrowly in the short term [19]. - Soda Ash - Market Information: The soda ash main contract closed at 1169 yuan/ton on Monday, down 0.60% (-7). The price in Shahe decreased by 11 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 0.50 million tons (+0.57%), with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing and the light - soda inventory increasing. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 10809 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 10322 short positions [20]. - Strategy: The downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is limited. Short positions can be considered [21].
2025-12-23：黑色建材日报-20251223
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-12-23 01:24