宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-23-20251223

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Report's Core View - The crude oil futures contract 2602 is expected to run strongly with short - term and medium - term oscillations and a bullish intraday trend, mainly driven by increased geopolitical risks [1][5]. 3) Summary Based on Related Catalogs Price and Trend - The short - term view of crude oil 2602 is oscillation, the medium - term view is also oscillation, and the intraday view is bullish, with a reference view of running strongly [1]. - It is estimated that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a bullish pattern on Tuesday [5]. Driving Logic - The recent sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the most direct and powerful driving force for the oil price rebound. The US has increased pressure on Venezuela, including a "full and complete blockade" of sanctioned oil tankers and plans to seize more tankers. About 600 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil have been seized in total. Venezuela is an important oil exporter with an export volume of about 600,000 barrels per day in November. The decrease in the number of tankers going to Venezuela due to US pressure has led to concerns about a substantial gap in global crude oil supply, thus increasing the risk premium of oil prices. Geopolitical factors dominated the short - term oil market, leading to a bullish and oscillating trend in domestic crude oil futures prices on Monday night [5].