PP：PDH利润再度压缩，趋势震荡偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to continue its weak trend. The cost - end support from crude oil is limited, the supply - demand game of existing stocks intensifies before the 2605 contract, the downstream demand is weak, and the PDH profit has hit a new low. However, the upstream's willingness to cut production is not strong. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH plants under deep PDH losses [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of PP2605 was 6119, with a daily decline of 1.51%. The trading volume was 534747, and the position increased by 13836. The 05 - contract basis was - 119 (compared to - 143 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 42 (compared to - 27 the previous day) [1] - Spot Price Data: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 5960 yuan/ton, 6000 yuan/ton, and 6140 yuan/ton respectively, all lower than the previous day's prices [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures market fluctuated. There was still a structural shortage of goods in some regions, but the trading atmosphere in the off - season was weak. The basis in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was at par, and there were still risk - free opportunities in Changzhou at certain stages. The warehouse receipts remained at a high level, and the follow - up of new downstream orders was insufficient. Some PDH plants plan to shut down in January, but the scale is not large. The year - end demand lacks flexibility, the industry's willingness to hold goods is limited in the continuous decline, and the basis is under pressure. The PP US - dollar market prices have partially declined, overseas suppliers' enthusiasm for offering to China is low, and downstream procurement is still based on rigid demand [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - Cost End: Crude oil is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations, providing limited cost support for PP. The chemical configuration in the market is differentiated, and the hedging logic between aromatics and olefins is continuously strengthened [2] - Supply End: There will be no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between supply and demand of existing stocks intensifies [2] - Demand End: The follow - up of new downstream orders has weakened, and downstream factories are still cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak demand [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0 [3]