显微镜下的中国经济（2025年第48期）：如何扭转增长速度放缓趋势

Investment Insights - Investment growth in 2025 is expected to decline significantly, with real estate investment projected to drop over 15 percentage points compared to the previous years' average decline of -10% from 2022 to 2024[1] - The central government's fiscal expansion will play a crucial role in stabilizing investment demand, as local financial constraints limit investment capabilities[1] Consumption Trends - Service consumption has shown resilience, increasing from 4.8% at the beginning of the year to 5.4% in November 2025, which is essential for driving overall consumer demand[1] - The decline in real estate sales has led to a noticeable slowdown in goods sales, with retail sales in the post-real estate cycle showing negative growth[1] Economic Outlook - The economic data indicates a continuous slowdown in growth, with investment and retail sales growth reaching their lowest levels since the pandemic[1] - The central economic work conference has proposed to "appropriately increase the scale of central budget investment" to support infrastructure and manufacturing investments[1] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and the possibility of a global recession impacting major economies[1]