国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251223

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2][4] - Silver: Reaching new highs [2][4] - Copper: With the dollar falling, the price is rising [2][8] - Zinc: Trading in a narrow range [2][11] - Lead: Reduced inventory is supporting the price [2][14] - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2][16] - Aluminum: Trading within a range; Alumina: Slightly rebounding; Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21] - Platinum: Domestic and international markets are in resonance, and bullish sentiment remains strong [2][24] - Palladium: The upward pace has slowed, and it is moving up in a volatile manner [2][24] - Nickel: The fundamental contradictions have not changed significantly, but Indonesian policies are causing concerns [2][28] - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand in the fundamentals are weak, and news about Indonesian nickel mines is causing fluctuations [2][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Fundamental Data - Price: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed at 979.90 with a -0.06% daily change; Comex Gold 2602 closed at 4368.70 with a 0.11% daily change. Shanghai Silver 2602 closed at 15376 with a -0.93% daily change; Comex Silver 2602 closed at 67.395 with a 2.97% daily change [4] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Shanghai Gold 2602 had a trading volume of 328,878 (up 87,762 from the previous day) and an open interest of 189,662 (down 7,090 from the previous day). Shanghai Silver 2602 had a trading volume of 1,904,227 (up 332,489 from the previous day) and an open interest of 337,467 (down 25,935 from the previous day) [4] - Inventory: Shanghai Gold inventory was 91,716 kg (unchanged from the previous day); Comex Gold inventory (in troy ounces, from the day before) was 36,070,160 (up 78,815 from the previous day). Shanghai Silver inventory was 899,636 kg (down 12,528 from the previous day); Comex Silver inventory (in troy ounces, from the day before) was 453,176,217 (up 225,434 from the previous day) [4] News - The competition for the Fed Chairmanship is intensifying. Waller is said to have performed "outstandingly" in the interview and has the support of corporate executives. Wall Street is lobbying for Warsh, and Trump may shift his focus to the job market [4] - Fed's "third - in - command" Williams said there is no urgency to cut interest rates further, and the November CPI data is somewhat distorted [4] Copper Fundamental Data - Price: The Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 94,320 with a 1.22% daily change; the LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 11,911 with a 0.34% daily change [8] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The Shanghai Copper index had a trading volume of 404,771 (up 90,659 from the previous day) and an open interest of 645,520 (up 13,578 from the previous day). The LME Copper 3M electronic disk had a trading volume of 15,865 (down 3,536 from the previous day) and an open interest of 345,000 (up 2,699 from the previous day) [8] - Inventory: Shanghai Copper inventory was 48,542 (up 2,803 from the previous day); LME Copper inventory was 157,750 (down 2,650 from the previous day), and the canceled warrant ratio was 32.81% (down 2.39% from the previous day) [8] News - Glencore acquired the Quechua copper project in Peru, expanding its business in the country [8] - The Peruvian Congress approved a one - year extension of temporary licenses for small - scale miners until the end of 2026 [8] - Kazakhstan's refined copper production from January to November 2025 increased by 2.5% year - on - year to 431,998 tons [8] Zinc Fundamental Data - Price: The Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 23,115 with a 0.17% daily change; the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3078 with a 0.65% daily change [11] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The Shanghai Zinc main contract had a trading volume of 134,424 (up 46,063 from the previous day) and an open interest of 90,612 (up 4,247 from the previous day). The LME Zinc had a trading volume of 8,494 (down 14,475 from the previous day) and an open interest of 229,088 (up 1,627 from the previous day) [11] - Inventory: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 42,590 tons (down 2,588 from the previous day); LME Zinc inventory was 99,250 tons (down 650 from the previous day) [11] News - The Japanese Finance Minister warned the foreign exchange market, suggesting that the intervention threshold has been approved by the US. The Japanese government's aggressive fiscal stimulus has pushed up Japanese government bond yields to a 27 - year high [11] - 2026 FOMC voter, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the Fed does not need to cut interest rates at least until next spring, and the November CPI inflation data may be distorted [11] Lead Fundamental Data - Price: The Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 16,920 with a 0.24% daily change; the LME Lead 3M electronic disk closed at 1984.5 with a 1.25% daily change [14] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The Shanghai Lead main contract had a trading volume of 49,244 (down 7,217 from the previous day) and an open interest of 59,586 (down 2,591 from the previous day). The LME Lead had a trading volume of 5,862 (down 6,084 from the previous day) and an open interest of 177,303 (up 635 from the previous day) [14] - Inventory: Shanghai Lead futures inventory was 13,838 tons (down 349 from the previous day); LME Lead inventory was 255,950 tons (down 2,675 from the previous day) [14] News - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. The 5 - year LPR in December is 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR is 3% [14] - Trump's "appointed" Fed理事Milan said the Fed will face a recession risk if it does not cut interest rates next year. A 2026 Fed voter is hawkish, saying there is no need to cut interest rates in the next few months, and the November CPI is underestimated [14] Tin Fundamental Data - Price: The Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 343,040 with a 2.59% daily change; the LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 42,975 with a 0.13% daily change [16] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The Shanghai Tin main contract had a trading volume of 240,305 (down 3,224 from the previous day) and an open interest of 33,801 (down 107 from the previous day). The LME Tin 3M electronic disk had a trading volume of 180 (down 9 from the previous day) and an open interest of 13,988 (up 53 from the previous day) [16] - Inventory: Shanghai Tin inventory was 7,844 (up 242 from the previous day); LME Tin inventory was 4,645 (up 220 from the previous day), and the canceled warrant ratio was 6.57% (down 0.38% from the previous day) [16] News - Similar to gold and silver news, including Fed Chairmanship competition, Fed's Williams' remarks, Japanese central bank's interest rate hike, etc. [16] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Data - Aluminum: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 22,220. The LME Aluminum 3M closed at 2956. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract had a trading volume of 253,929 and an open interest of 314,299. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 2.70 million tons [21] - Alumina: The Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2498. The main contract had a trading volume of 170,083 and an open interest of 151,207 [21] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The aluminum alloy main contract closed at 21,290. The main contract had a trading volume of 4,594 and an open interest of 17,184 [21] News - Goldman Sachs believes that the global market in 2026 will be a "Song of Ice and Fire." The asset valuation is "overheated," and AI valuation has led the fundamentals significantly [23] - China's energy storage batteries are booming, with expected global shipments to jump 75% this year [23] Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Data - Price: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 568.45 with a 6.54% increase; palladium futures 2606 closed at 508.45 with a 5.88% increase [24] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Shanghai Platinum had a trading volume of 54,306 (down 99,605 from the previous day) and an open interest of 41,087 (up 3,000 from the previous day). Shanghai Palladium had a trading volume of 28,327 (down 80,134 from the previous day) and an open interest of 17,699 (up 2,478 from the previous day) [24] News - Fed理事Milan said the necessity of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut has weakened. Trump may appoint a new Fed Chair in the first week of January next year [27] - The negotiation between Ukraine and the US ended, and Zelensky said the key work of the "peace plan" draft was completed [27] Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - Nickel: The Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 121,260. The 1 imported nickel price was 118,825 [28] - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,850 [28] News - The Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [28] - China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [29] - The Indonesian government has taken various measures regarding the nickel mining and smelting industry, such as sanctions on mining companies, changes in RKAB approval procedures, and suspension of new smelting license issuance [29][30][31]