国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20251223

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report offers insights and analyses on various commodities in the futures market, covering precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and more. It presents the current market trends, fundamental data, and macro and industry news for each commodity, along with corresponding trend intensities and trading suggestions. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining, with a trend intensity of 0 [6]. - Silver: Reached a new high, with a trend intensity of 0 [6]. - Platinum: Domestic and international markets resonate, and the bullish sentiment remains unabated, with a trend intensity of 1 [26][28]. - Palladium: The climbing pace has slowed, with an upward trend in oscillations, and a trend intensity of 1 [26][28]. Base Metals - Copper: The price rose as the US dollar declined, with a trend intensity of 1 [10][12]. - Zinc: Narrow - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][15]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [16]. - Tin: Supply has encountered new disruptions, with a trend intensity of 1 [18][22]. - Aluminum: Range - bound oscillations, with a trend intensity of 1; Alumina had a slight rebound, with a trend intensity of 0; Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [23][25]. - Nickel: The fundamental contradictions have not changed significantly, and concerns about Indonesian policies have increased, with a trend intensity of 0 [30][34]. - Stainless Steel: The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the news of Indonesian nickel mines has caused disturbances, with a trend intensity of 0 [30][34]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil - Related: Not specifically mentioned in a comprehensive way, but some related commodities like fuel oil and asphalt are covered. - Fuel Oil: The night - session price rose, and short - term volatility increased, with a trend intensity of 1 [139]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Mainly followed the upward trend, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels rebounded slightly, with a trend intensity of 1 [139]. - Asphalt: The spot price had a narrow - range adjustment, remaining stable despite the oil price trend, with a trend intensity of 1 [80][89]. - Chemicals: - PTA: Do not chase the high price, and it is in a high - level oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 0 [63][70]. - MEG: The trend is relatively weak, with a trend intensity of 0 [63][70]. - LLDPE: Some full - density products have been redirected, and the valuation support is limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [94][96]. - PP: The PDH profit has been compressed again, and the trend is weakly oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [97][99]. - Caustic Soda: A short - term rebound, and attention should be paid to inventory changes, with a trend intensity of 0 [100][102]. - Methanol: Oscillations are supported, with a trend intensity of 0 [112][115]. - Urea: Oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [116][119]. - Styrene: Short - term oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 [120]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has changed little, with a trend intensity of 0 [124][125]. - LPG: The external cost is relatively strong, with a trend intensity of 0 [127][132]. - Propylene: There are expectations of supply - demand tightening, and the short - term trend is supported, with a trend intensity of 0 [128][132]. - PVC: A short - term rebound, but the upward space may be limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [136][137]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The production cut is gradually being realized, and there is a short - term rebound, with a trend intensity of 1 [168][174]. - Soybean Oil: The price of US soybeans rebounded, and it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations, with a trend intensity of 0 [168][174]. - Soybean Meal: The US soybeans rose overnight, and the Dalian soybean meal may rebound and oscillate, with a trend intensity of +1 [175][177]. - Soybean: Oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [175][177]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market, with a trend intensity of 0 [178][181]. - Sugar: There is an expectation of a weak basis, with a trend intensity of 0 [182][185]. - Cotton: The futures price is oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream pre - holiday stocking, with a trend intensity of 0 [187][191]. - Eggs: Oscillating and adjusting, with a trend intensity of 0 [193]. - Hogs: Hold the reverse spread, with a trend intensity of - 1 [195][200]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills, with a trend intensity of 0 [202][204]. Others - Logs: Low - level oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 [59][62]. - Synthetic Rubber: The oscillation center has moved up, with a trend intensity of 0 [77][79]. - Paper Pulp: Oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [104][106]. - Glass: The raw sheet price is stable, with a trend intensity of 0 [109][110]. - Ferroalloys: - Silicon Iron: The sector and fundamentals resonate, and the trend is strongly oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [50][54]. - Manganese Silicon: The long and short sentiments are intertwined, and the trend is widely oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [50][54]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Wide - range oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [55][58]. - Container Freight Index (European Line): Near - term contracts should focus on the opening guidance, while far - term contracts should focus on the progress of the Gaza peace talks, with a trend intensity of 0 [141][155]. - Short Fibre: Short - term follow - up of raw materials, with compressed processing fees, with a trend intensity of 0 [157][158]. - Bottle Chips: Short - term follow - up of raw materials, with a trend intensity of 0 [157][158]. - Offset Printing Paper: It is recommended to wait and see, with a trend intensity of 0 [160]. - Pure Benzene: Short - term oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 [165][166].