烧碱：短期反弹，关注库存变化

Report Summary 1) Reported Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]. 2) Core View of the Report - Macro anti - involution sentiment and capital position transfer drive a short - term rebound in caustic soda, but fundamentally, it remains in a pattern of high production and high inventory. The demand side has limited support, and the supply side has large pressure, with the product facing price - cut and inventory - reduction pressure before the Spring Festival. The valuation of caustic soda is always suppressed by the alumina production - cut expectation, and without production cuts by manufacturers, a significant rebound is difficult [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 01 - contract futures price is 2181. The cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong is 710, and the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2219, with a basis of 38 [1]. Spot News - On December 22, the local price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was stable, and individual enterprises slightly adjusted prices according to their own shipment conditions [1]. Market Condition Analysis - The demand side: Low alumina profits lead to negative feedback in the caustic soda industry chain. Non - aluminum downstream industries face seasonal declines in rigid demand, and exports are under pressure, so overall demand has limited support. - The supply side: Winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance. With high operating rates, there is a large supply pressure of caustic soda, and enterprises face high - inventory pressure. Caustic soda inventories increased this week, and there is still pressure to cut prices to reduce inventory before the Spring Festival [2].