棉花：期价震荡偏强，关注下游节前备货20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price is oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday stocking of downstream enterprises [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: CF2605 closed at 14,070 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.39% and a night - session closing price of 14,145 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.53%; CY2603 closed at 20,110 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.30% and a night - session closing price of 20,210 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.50%; ICE US cotton 3 was at 63.61 cents/pound with a decrease of 0.06% [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: CF2605 had a trading volume of 452,618 lots, an increase of 48,089 lots compared to the previous day, and an open interest of 1,116,046 lots, a decrease of 421 lots; CY2603 had a trading volume of 9,577 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and an open interest of 23,294 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipts: Zhengzhou cotton had 4,075 warehouse receipts, an increase of 205, and 3,831 valid forecasts, a decrease of 21;棉纱 had 9 warehouse receipts, unchanged, and 0 valid forecasts, an increase of 9 [1] - Spot Prices: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,901 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37%; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,915 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37%; the price in Shandong was 15,195 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.07%; the price in Hebei was 15,132 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.01%; the 3128B index was 15,154 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.06%; the international cotton index M was 72.05 cents/pound, an increase of 0.36%; the price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.29%; the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 21,133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.02% [1] - Price Spreads: The CF1 - 5 spread was 30 yuan/ton more than the previous day; the spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was unchanged at 830 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot trading was average, with fixed - price trading relatively better. Spot fixed prices increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton with the rise of Zhengzhou cotton. The 2025/26 Beijiang machine - picked 41 - 31 grade double - 29 with less than 3% impurity had many fixed - price quotes above 15,000 yuan/ton [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The price of pure - cotton yarn was stable, and the overall market sales were weak. Affected by the slowdown in the downstream grey - cloth market and insufficient new orders, the yarn inventory of spinning enterprises increased slightly, and the phenomenon of bargaining sales increased. Recently, the sales of medium - and low - count yarns (including rotor - spun yarn) were weak, while only high - count combed yarns sold well, and some traders reported a shortage of supplies [2] - US Cotton: The ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell. After the release of US cotton export sales data, it declined. Due to the approaching holiday, the market trading was light, and it was still in a low - level oscillation [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, with a value range of [-2, 2] for integer values, and 0 represents a neutral trend [5]