PVC：短期反弹，高度或有限

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - PVC is currently at a low valuation, and although market trading against involution and large - scale stop - profit of short positions in the near - month contracts can drive a phased rebound, the rebound space is limited [1]. - The high - production and high - inventory structure of the PVC market is difficult to change in the short term, but considering the continuous decline in caustic soda profits and the historically low level of chlor - alkali comprehensive profits, supply - side production cuts during the maintenance peak season next year can be expected [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - For PVC fundamental data, the 01 - contract futures price is 4314, the East China spot price is 4340, the basis is 26, and the 1 - 5 month spread is - 277 [1]. Spot News - Hanwha and part of Xinpu's devices are under maintenance. The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises in the industry is 77.38%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.05% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.23% [1]. Market Condition Analysis - Winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance. Even if there are new maintenance plans, the scale may be limited. Futures contracts before the 03 contract still face a pattern of high production and weak demand, and the expectation of large - scale production cuts may come after the 03 contract [1]. - PVC warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the future pressure on long - position holders to take delivery is large [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2].