2025年12月23日：期货市场交易指引-20251223

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures - medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds - range - bound [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal - short - term trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - sell on rallies [1][8][9] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper - range trading; Aluminum - strengthen observation; Nickel - observe or sell on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - hold long positions, be cautious on new positions; Lithium carbonate - bullish range - bound [1][11][12] - Energy Chemicals: PVC - range trading at low levels; Caustic soda - temporary observation; Soda ash - temporary observation; Styrene - range trading; Rubber - range trading; Urea - range trading; Methanol - range trading; Polyolefins - bearish range - bound [1][18][20] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - bullish range - bound; PTA - bullish range - upward; Apple - bearish range - bound; Jujube - bearish range - bound [1][26][28] - Agricultural and Livestock: Hogs - short - term short on rallies for near - month contracts, cautiously bullish for far - month contracts; Eggs - range - bound; Corn - short - term cautious on chasing highs, hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; Soybean meal - bullish on dips for near - month contracts, bearish for far - month contracts; Oils - close long positions gradually [1][32][35] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as central bank policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand relationships. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [5][8][11] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - Index Futures: Due to factors like the Fed chair controversy, central bank policies, and geopolitical events, the market has a fast - rotating main line. After the end of recent positive and negative meeting supports, index futures may range - bound. Medium to long - term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips [5] - Treasury Bonds: With the upcoming release of China's loan prime rate and the need to monitor the end - of - year fluctuations in the liability side of broad - based funds, treasury bonds are expected to range - bound [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: There is a game between strong bearish realities (high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak demand) and weak marginal supports. The short - term balance of power between bulls and bears suggests short - term trading [8] - Rebar: After the major meetings, the market is in a policy vacuum. Although there are expectations of weakening steel exports next year, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, so range trading is recommended [9] - Glass: With factors such as stable supply at the end of the year, weak demand, and the fermentation of supply - increase expectations for soda ash, the glass market is expected to be weak before the Spring Festival, and selling on rallies is advised [10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The global copper concentrate supply remains tight, but factors like year - end capital tightness and high copper prices suppressing demand limit the upside. Copper is expected to range - bound at high levels [11] - Aluminum: Although the macro - atmosphere is good and LME aluminum breaks through the resistance level, the fundamentals are still weak. Aluminum is expected to range - bound at high levels, and strengthening observation is recommended [12] - Nickel: The long - term supply surplus continues. With the uncertainty of the new RKAB policy on nickel ore supply, it is advisable to observe or sell on rallies [14] - Tin: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. Tin prices are expected to be bullish range - bound, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand [14] - Silver and Gold: Due to factors such as the rise in the US unemployment rate, the Fed's interest rate cut, and concerns about the US economy, the medium - term price centers of silver and gold move up. Hold long positions for silver and trade in ranges for gold [16] - Lithium Carbonate: With strong downstream demand and the continuation of the de - stocking trend, and the risk of Yichun's mining permits, lithium carbonate prices are expected to be bullish range - bound [18] Energy Chemicals - PVC: With weak domestic demand, high inventory, and uncertain export growth, PVC is expected to range - bound at low levels, and attention should be paid to policies and cost factors [18] - Caustic Soda: Affected by factors such as high inventory, alumina production cuts, and winter high -开工 of chlor - alkali enterprises, it is recommended to observe temporarily [20] - Styrene: Due to factors such as the geopolitical situation of crude oil, the accumulation of pure benzene inventory, and the limited rebound space of styrene, it is expected to range - bound, and attention should be paid to the price of pure benzene and crude oil [20] - Rubber: With the end of the domestic production season, the overseas peak - production season, high inventory in Qingdao ports, and weak tire production, rubber is expected to range - bound [22] - Urea: With the decrease in the start - up rate, the weakening of agricultural demand, and the increase in industrial demand, urea is expected to range - bound weakly [23] - Methanol: With the recovery of domestic supply, the high - level and narrow - range fluctuation of methanol - to - olefins start - up rate, and the weak traditional demand, methanol is expected to range - bound, and attention should be paid to Iran's situation [25] - Polyolefins: With strong supply and weak demand, PE is expected to be bearish range - bound, and PP is expected to range - bound within a certain range [25] - Soda Ash: With supply surplus, rising costs, and the reduction of supply contraction, it is recommended to observe temporarily [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed slightly. With stable consumption and policy expectations, cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish range - bound [26] - PTA: Affected by the geopolitical situation of crude oil and the supply - demand de - stocking, PTA is expected to rise in a range [28] - Apple and Jujube: With stable market prices, slow inventory movement, and weak trading atmosphere, apple and jujube are expected to be bearish range - bound [28][30] Agricultural and Livestock - Hogs: In the short - term, the pig price is affected by factors such as consumption changes and the slaughter rhythm. In the long - term, it is affected by capacity reduction. Near - month contracts can be shorted on rallies, and far - month contracts are cautiously bullish [32] - Eggs: In the short - term, the egg price is range - bound. In the medium - term, the supply pressure eases marginally. In the long - term, the capacity clearance takes time, and attention should be paid to external factors [33] - Corn: In the short - term, there is selling pressure, and it is necessary to be cautious on chasing highs. In the long - term, the demand recovers, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to policies and weather [34] - Soybean Meal: Near - month contracts are bullish on dips, and far - month contracts are bearish. Spot enterprises can price basis contracts or transfer positions [35] - Oils: In the short - term, oils have a sign of stopping falling, and long positions should be closed gradually. In the long - term, they may turn bullish [40]