油脂油料：申万期货品种策略日报-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean meal oscillated and closed lower, while rapeseed meal closed slightly higher. Brazilian soybean sowing rate reached 94.1% as of the week of December 13. US soybean exports are still slightly slow. With concerns over US soybean export demand and increasing expectations of a bumper harvest in South America, US soybean futures prices have been weak recently. In China, continuous auctions of imported soybeans have made up for the supply gap, and the cost support for Dalian oil and meal has weakened. With sufficient long - term supply expected to continue to pressure prices, Dalian meal is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [2]. - Oils: Night trading of oils showed a strong oscillation. Malaysia's reduction of palm oil export tax rates and reference prices boosted export expectations, leading to a rise in palm oil futures prices. However, the inventory pressure in the producing areas is still significant. Although in the production - reduction period, the inventory inflection point may not appear until December. For rapeseed oil, with Australian rapeseeds arriving at ports and about to enter the crushing process, market supply is expected to gradually increase. With no improvement in the short - term fundamentals of palm oil producing areas, oils are expected to oscillate and consolidate [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Domestic Futures: For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7772, 8414, and 8864 respectively, with price changes of 60, 122, and 120 and percentage changes of 0.78%, 1.47%, and - 3.15%. The price differences and ratios of various contracts also showed different changes [1]. - International Futures: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 3958 (Ringgit/ton), 1064 (cents/bu), 49 (cents/lb), and 302 (dollars/ton) respectively, with price changes of 9, 15, 1, and 0 and percentage changes of 0.23%, 1.43%, 1.49%, and 0.13% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - Domestic Spot: In the domestic spot market, the spot prices of various oils and meals showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.61%, and the spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil increased by 0.24%. The spot price differences and basis also changed compared with the previous values [1]. - Import and Processing Profit: The current values of import and processing profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, and near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil were - 391, - 314, - 103, - 300, and - 335 respectively, showing different degrees of improvement compared with the previous values [1]. 3.3 Industry Information - Soybean Export: A US private exporter reported selling 396,000 tons of soybeans to China, with 330,000 tons for delivery in the 2025/2026 season and the remaining 66,000 tons for delivery in the 2026/2027 season [2]. - Palm Oil Export: According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 20 were 821,442 tons, a 0.87% decrease compared to the same period last month [2].