宁证期货今日早评-20251223

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The expectation of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is strengthened, which provides support for precious metals, especially silver, during the interest rate cut cycle. Attention should be paid to the impact of gold fluctuations on silver and profit protection [1]. - The domestic soda ash market is in a volatile state, with prices remaining stable but weak. New production capacity puts pressure on the market, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [1]. - The steel market is in a weak balance between supply and demand, with stable cost support, and steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. - The silicon iron market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with high costs supporting the price bottom. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level around the cost valuation [4]. - The coke market has little fundamental contradiction, and prices mainly follow the cost of coking coal. The possibility of further price cuts is small due to winter storage demand [5]. - The funds are loose, which supports the bond market. The short - term bond market should be viewed with a volatile mindset, and the evolution of the expectation of monetary policy easing should be observed [6]. - The selection of the new Fed Chairman may cause market disturbances. Gold is not recommended to be over - bullish and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [6]. - The pig market has strong supply and weak demand, especially in the southern region. Pig prices are expected to weaken after a short - term rebound [7]. - The soybean meal market is under pressure due to increased soybean supply and high inventory. The domestic futures contract is expected to oscillate in a certain range and may decline if the South American harvest is good [8]. - The palm oil market is supported by improved exports and reduced production in Malaysia. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [9]. - The copper market is driven by macro - easing expectations and tight mine supply, but the consumption end has limited support. Copper prices may be strong in the short term but are at risk of increased high - level volatility [10]. - The methanol market has high domestic production and slightly decreased downstream demand. The port inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [11]. - The plastic market has a structure of strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. 3. Summary by Product Precious Metals - Silver: Fed officials' statements have strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is bullish for silver during the interest rate cut cycle. Attention should be paid to gold's influence [1]. - Gold: The selection of the new Fed Chairman may cause market disturbances. Gold is not recommended to be over - bullish and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [6]. Industrial Metals - Copper: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee is set at 0, indicating extremely tight mine supply. Copper prices are driven by macro - expectations but face high - level volatility risks due to limited consumer acceptance [10]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: The national heavy - quality soda ash price is stable, with a slight decrease in production and a small increase in inventory. The market is expected to be weak in the short term due to new production capacity [1]. - Silicon Iron: The overall cost is high, supply is decreasing due to factory shutdowns, and demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [4]. - Coke: The coking profit has declined but remains marginally profitable. Supply has decreased due to production restrictions, and demand has decreased seasonally. Prices follow coking coal, and further cuts are less likely [5]. - Methanol: Domestic production is at a high level, downstream demand has slightly decreased, and port inventory is decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [11]. - Plastic: Supply is abundant, production enterprise inventory is rising, and downstream demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: Soybean supply is increasing, and inventory is high. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures contract is expected to oscillate in a certain range and may decline if the South American harvest is good [8]. - Palm Oil: Malaysian palm oil exports have improved, and production has decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the market is in a seasonal off - season [9]. - Pig: The pig market has strong supply and weak demand, especially in the south. Prices are expected to weaken after a short - term rebound [7]. Others - Steel: The steel market has a weak balance between supply and demand, with stable cost support. Steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. - Short - term Treasury Bonds: The funds are loose, which supports the bond market. The short - term bond market should be viewed with a volatile mindset, and the evolution of the expectation of monetary policy easing should be observed [6].