中辉有色观点-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Under pressure, short - term narrow - range consolidation, long - term short - position allocation [1][9] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Relatively strong [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound from low level [1] - Polysilicon: Adjustment at high level [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market has attracted significant capital inflows, with gold having long - term strategic allocation value, and silver having a high - probability of continued bullish trends in the long run. Copper is expected to be strong in the short - term and promising in the long - term. Zinc is under pressure in the short - term and has a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the long - term. Aluminum, nickel, and other metals show different short - term price trends, and lithium carbonate supply remains tight [1][2][5]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market situation: Precious metals have witnessed large capital inflows, reaching new highs. The "crazy rise" of silver, platinum, and palladium is driven by supply - demand imbalance, Fed rate - cut expectations, and capital inflows [2]. - Influencing factors: US policy data is mixed, the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike is in line with expectations, and there are concerns about structural supply and inventory shortages. Silver's financial attribute is the strongest, and the risk of a short squeeze may be repeatedly traded [2]. - Strategy recommendation: Long - term value - oriented positions in gold should be held, and short - term attention should be paid to the 955 support level of domestic gold. For silver, beware of high - volatility risks as the gold - silver ratio has entered an ultra - low range [2]. Copper - Market situation: The global copper concentrate supply remains tight, and copper prices are high. The high price suppresses demand, and the market trading is light. COMEX copper continues to draw in global copper inventories, and the market is rumored that the US plans to hoard copper [3][4]. - Influencing factors: The Fed's new chairman selection is intense, and the probability of a 25bp rate cut in January has increased. The market liquidity is abundant, and the non - ferrous sector is generally rising [4]. - Strategy recommendation: Hold long positions in copper, and use price corrections as opportunities to build positions. In the short - term, focus on the range of 92,500 - 96,500 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 11,400 - 12,200 dollars/ton for London copper [5]. Zinc - Market situation: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees are flat, some high - cost smelters' losses are expanding, and supply is expected to shrink. Consumption has entered the off - season, and both supply and demand are weak in the short - term. Overseas LME zinc inventory has a large - scale delivery, suppressing the upside space of zinc prices [7][8]. - Influencing factors: The end - of - year macro environment at home and abroad enters a window period, and overseas zinc inventory delivery suppresses prices [8]. - Strategy recommendation: Enterprises are advised to actively conduct sell - hedging and build positions at high prices. In the long - term, zinc is still a short - position allocation in the sector. Focus on the range of 22,800 - 23,200 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 3,000 - 3,100 dollars/ton for London zinc [9]. Aluminum - Market situation: Aluminum prices rebound and then decline, and alumina stabilizes at a low level. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is rising, and the inventory of aluminum rods is falling. The downstream processing enterprise operating rate is decreasing, and the terminal market shows structural differentiation [10][12]. - Influencing factors: The Fed cut interest rates at the end of the year, and the cost of aluminum enterprises in southwest China is expected to increase due to the approaching dry season. Overseas alumina production is increasing, and the market surplus pattern continues [12]. - Strategy recommendation: Take short - term profit - taking on Shanghai aluminum and then wait and see, paying attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [13]. Nickel - Market situation: Nickel prices continue to rebound, and stainless steel also shows a rebound trend. Indonesia has reduced its nickel ore production target, and the inventory at home and abroad remains high. The stainless steel market has entered the off - season, and the inventory is slightly increasing [14][16]. - Influencing factors: Indonesia's policy adjustment affects the supply of nickel ore, and the off - season consumption suppresses the demand for stainless steel [16]. - Strategy recommendation: Take short - term profit - taking on nickel and stainless steel and then wait and see, paying attention to the change in stainless steel inventory. The main operating range of nickel is 118,000 - 123,000 yuan/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Market situation: The main contract LC2605 of lithium carbonate opens low and goes high, reaching a new high this year. The trading volume and open interest have increased, and the price is running strongly [18][19]. - Influencing factors: There are many positive news in the week, which stimulates speculative sentiment. The supply has a slight increase, and the demand from downstream material factories remains high, with inventory showing a slight decline [20]. - Strategy recommendation: Take profit on long positions in the range of 110,000 - 117,000 yuan/ton [21].