英大证券晨会纪要-20251223

Core Insights - The report indicates a strong rebound in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering the 3900-point mark and the ChiNext Index showing a gain of over 2% [2][9] - The increase in market activity is attributed to a significant easing of global liquidity concerns, driven by a lower U.S. core CPI of 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since March 2021, which has led to increased bets on earlier interest rate cuts in 2026 [2][9] - The report highlights the potential for structural and policy-driven investment opportunities in the upcoming cross-year market, despite underlying economic growth constraints due to declining fixed asset investment [2][9] Market Overview - On the trading day, the three major indices opened strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to the 3900-point level. Key sectors such as Hainan Free Trade Zone, optical communication modules, and semiconductor equipment saw significant gains [5][6] - The overall market sentiment was positive, with a total trading volume approaching 1.9 trillion yuan, indicating a release of market energy [6][9] Sector Analysis - The Hainan Free Trade Zone concept stocks experienced a substantial rise following the official launch of the free trade port operations on December 18, which is seen as a significant step towards high-level openness in China [7] - Optical communication module stocks also surged, driven by their critical role in modern communication networks, including 5G and data centers. The sector is expected to remain in a high prosperity cycle, supported by advancements in AI computing and data center upgrades [8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a consistent investment approach, focusing on sectors with strong earnings support, including technology growth areas (semiconductors, AI themes, robotics), cyclical industries (solar, batteries, chemicals), and dividend stocks (banks, utilities) [3][10] - Investors are advised to avoid high-valuation stocks lacking earnings support and to consider opportunities in sectors that are expected to perform well in the current market environment [10]