中信期货航运：现货乐观预期带动EC主力合约增仓上涨盘后SCFIS更新于1589.20点上涨5.2%

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping futures market is currently strong, driven by optimistic expectations in the spot market, with the EC main contract increasing in position and rising. The market anticipates that the overall opening freight rate center of SK will continue to rise. The spot market is still in the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak, and the spot freight rate has not reached its peak yet. In the short term, the main contract is still in the process of reaching its peak and may then show wide - range fluctuations. The far - month contracts are suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations and may remain in a positive spread pattern [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Market Performance - After the EC opened, the main contract reached a maximum of 1900 points, with an increase in positions of over 5800 lots and a maximum increase of 10.42%. The near - and far - month contracts maintained a positive spread. As of the close, the 02 contract increased its positions by over 5000 lots, closing at 1871.8 points, up 8.8%, and the positions rose to 37,000 lots; the 04 contract closed at 116.6 points, up 3.4%, and the positions increased by 1634 lots. The 12 contract may decline slightly tomorrow [2][4] Spot Freight Rates - The post - market SCFIS was updated at 1589.20 points, up 5.2%, corresponding to the shipping price in mid - December at around $2250 - $2300/FEU. The spot freight rates of various shipping lines showed an upward trend. For example, MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam freight rate on January 1 was updated at $2530/FEU, a $30/FEU increase compared to the opening. The 0MA's opening freight rate in January was at $3745/FEU, a $1000/FEU increase compared to late December. The spot freight rate has not reached its peak yet, and the shipping companies may announce an increase in the spot freight rate in the second half of January [2][3][4] Market Influencing Factors - The market's expectation of significant over - capacity has eased because the resumption of navigation has not changed from expectation to reality. Geopolitical factors still have the possibility of recurrence, which promotes the overall rebound of the futures market. The last trading day of the 02 contract has a boosting effect on the contract price. There are still some disturbances in the market, such as the adjustment of spot shipping capacity, the uncertainty of the decline range after the spot price peaks, and the possible adjustment of the market position transfer [3][4] Market Outlook - It is necessary to pay attention to the marginal changes in the freight rates of shipping companies such as MSK in mid - to late January and whether the inflection point of the spot freight rate appears. The implementation of the Middle - East cease - fire agreement and the Russia - Ukraine conflict still has certain uncertainties. The main contract is expected to show wide - range fluctuations, and the far - month contracts may remain in a positive spread pattern [4]