黑色建材日报：市场成交一般，钢价震荡运行-20251223

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The steel market has average transactions, with steel prices fluctuating. The iron ore market has a decline in global shipments, and ore prices are rising while fluctuating. The coking coal and coke market has seen the third round of price cuts implemented, with prices fluctuating. The thermal coal market has a narrowing decline in production area coal prices due to supply contraction at the end of the month [1][3][5][8] Market Analysis Steel - Futures and spot: Steel futures maintained a fluctuating trend. Spot inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coils in national cities decreased significantly, and overall spot transactions were average, mainly at low prices [1] - Supply and demand: The supply-demand fundamentals of building materials continue to improve, with off-season consumption showing resilience, a slight increase in production, and a continuous decline in inventory. However, there is an expected seasonal decline in demand. Plate production decreased slightly, consumption and exports also declined slightly but still showed resilience. High inventory continued to suppress plate prices, and the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar continued to weaken [1] Iron Ore - Futures and spot: Iron ore futures prices rose while fluctuating. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. The total spot trading volume at major national ports was 1.009 million tons, a 15.91% increase from the previous day, and the forward spot trading volume was 1.12 million tons, a 38.96% increase. The global iron ore shipments decreased slightly to 34.65 million tons, a 3.6% decrease, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased slightly to 26.47 million tons, a 2.8% decrease. Port inventories continued to accumulate, with the total inventory at 45 ports reaching 156.82 million tons, a 1.1% increase [3] - Supply and demand: The supply-demand contradiction of iron ore continues to accumulate. Non-mainstream shipments remain at a high level under high valuations, and the total inventory has continued to rise. However, due to the lack of liquidity of some port supplies, ore prices remain high. Some steel mills have reduced production to relieve restocking pressure and have insufficient short-term restocking willingness. If the liquidity of some port supplies recovers, ore prices will face downward pressure [3] Coking Coal and Coke - Futures and spot: The futures of coking coal and coke fluctuated. Mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong implemented the third round of coke price cuts, with a reduction of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Coking enterprises began to restock appropriately, and coking coal transactions improved. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is 970 - 980 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 3 clean coal is about 1,050 yuan/ton [5][6] - Supply and demand: For coke, after the third round of price cuts, supply has contracted, and demand has weakened due to the decline in molten iron. Short-term supply and demand maintain a weak balance, and coke prices remain under pressure. For coking coal, imported coal has impacted the domestic market, downstream demand is insufficient, and coking coal inventories have continued to accumulate. Coupled with the decline in thermal coal prices, the fundamentals of coking coal are weak. However, due to the approaching delivery month, the price of the near-month contract returns to the warehouse receipt value, so the futures price maintains a wide - range fluctuation [6] Thermal Coal - Futures and spot: In the production areas, coal prices rose and fell. The shipment of medium and low - calorie coal from some coal mines improved, but high - calorie coal mines still saw price declines. At the ports, the thermal coal market remained weak, but some rigid demand and short - selling inquiries increased near the end of the month. The supply at the production areas tightened at the end of the year, and the pessimistic market sentiment eased slightly. The load of downstream power plants and terminal enterprises did not increase significantly, the actual procurement intensity remained weak, and short - term prices remained weak. The price of imported low - calorie coal stabilized, and there were also inquiries for high - calorie coal, but there was still a situation of bargaining and waiting and seeing [8] - Supply and demand: Supply has contracted near the end of the month, but coal demand is poor, inventories continue to grow, and coal prices fluctuate weakly. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged [8] Strategies Steel - Unilateral: Fluctuating; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore - Unilateral: Fluctuating; Cross - variety: None; Cross - period: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal: Fluctuating; Coke: Fluctuating; Cross - variety: None; Cross - period: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [7]