Bafang Electric( Suzhou) (SH:603489) Soochow Securities·2025-12-23 02:34Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is a leading supplier of electric bicycle motors in China, with a mature global layout primarily focused on the European and American markets. It has developed a comprehensive product line including electric bicycle motors, integrated wheel motors, kits, and batteries, enhancing its core competitiveness [7][8] - In Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.034 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 67 million yuan, up 30.52% year-on-year. In Q3 2025 alone, revenue reached 391 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.26%, and net profit was 35 million yuan, a staggering increase of 5640.96% [7][8] - The report indicates that the end of inventory destocking has led to a recovery in demand, and internal cost-cutting measures have contributed to better-than-expected performance [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 1,648 million yuan - 2024: 1,357 million yuan - 2025: 1,474 million yuan - 2026: 1,696 million yuan - 2027: 1,959 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected to be -42.18% in 2023, -17.66% in 2024, 8.61% in 2025, 15.11% in 2026, and 15.50% in 2027 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 127.86 million yuan - 2024: 63.85 million yuan - 2025: 93.88 million yuan - 2026: 123.23 million yuan - 2027: 145.41 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected to be -75.03% in 2023, -50.06% in 2024, 47.04% in 2025, 31.26% in 2026, and 18.00% in 2027 [1] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 21.8%, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 2025 gross margin was 21.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. This improvement is attributed to demand recovery and economies of scale, despite a decline in the proportion of high-margin mid-mounted motors [14] - The report highlights significant cost control, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios decreasing year-on-year [14] Long-term Market Outlook - The report suggests that after the end of inventory destocking, a new cycle may begin, with a long-term market potential remaining vast. The overall inventory level in overseas markets has decreased significantly, although demand recovery for electric bicycles is slow due to the overall economic downturn in Europe. The company is seizing market opportunities and actively supporting customer solutions, which is expected to drive business growth [14] - The report anticipates that the penetration rate of electric bicycles will continue to rise, indicating sustained demand for the company's comprehensive product offerings [14] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains net profit forecasts of 94 million yuan for 2025 and 123 million yuan for 2026, with an expected net profit of 145 million yuan for 2027, reflecting growth rates of 47%, 31%, and 18% respectively. Corresponding P/E ratios are projected at 73x, 56x, and 47x [15]