中辉能化观点-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report presents a cautious and bearish outlook on the energy and chemical industries, with some potential for short - term rebounds [1][3][6] 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea, LNG, asphalt, glass, and soda ash. It provides core views on each product, such as short - term rebounds or long - term bearish trends, based on factors like supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and cost changes [1][3][6] 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Core View: Short - term rebound due to rising South American geopolitical uncertainty, but long - term bearish due to oversupply in the off - season [1][9] - Market Performance: WTI, Brent, and SC rebounded overnight, with WTI rising 2.64%, Brent rising 2.55%, and SC rising 1.22% [7][8] - Fundamental Analysis: South American geopolitical uncertainty increased as the US seized Venezuelan oil tankers. Demand is expected to increase in 2025 and 2026, but US inventories showed mixed changes in the week ending December 12 [9][10] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [435 - 445] for SC [11] LPG - Core View: Short - term rebound supported by the cost side, but long - term bearish [1][12] - Market Performance: On December 22, the PG main contract closed at 4100 yuan/ton, down 0.12% [14] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply increased as refinery operations rose, and downstream chemical demand was resilient. Inventories decreased both at ports and in factories [15] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4050 - 4150] for PG [16] L - Core View: The market returned to a weak state after the commissioning of a new device [17] - Market Performance: L05 closed at 6320 yuan/ton, down 2.4% [18] - Fundamental Analysis: The commissioning of a 500,000 - ton new device by BASF increased supply pressure. The off - season for agricultural films led to decreased demand, and inventory faced de - stocking pressure [20] - Strategy: Partially close short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread. Focus on the range of [6250 - 6400] for L [20] PP - Core View: High inventory constrained the rebound space, and the market oscillated at a low level [21] - Market Performance: PP05 closed at 6213 yuan/ton, down 1.1% [22] - Fundamental Analysis: Total commercial inventory remained at a high level. Demand entered the off - season in December, and the de - stocking pressure was high [24] - Strategy: Reduce short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Short the MTO05 spread. Focus on the range of [6150 - 6300] for PP [24] PVC - Core View: The market rebounded from the bottom supported by low valuation [25] - Market Performance: V05 closed at 4652 yuan/ton, down 1.2% [26] - Fundamental Analysis: Although the upper - middle stream inventory was high and supply reduction was insufficient, many domestic devices had cash - flow losses, and some marginal devices started to reduce loads [28] - Strategy: Go long in the short term. Wait for continuous inventory de - stocking to go long on dips in the long term. Industrial customers should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of [4600 - 4800] for V [28] PTA - Core View: The supply - demand pattern was good, and consider buying on dips [29] - Market Performance: TA05 closed at 4674 yuan/ton, down 48 [29] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply decreased as many domestic devices were under planned maintenance, and overseas devices were partially increased in load. Downstream demand was good but expected to weaken. There was a risk of inventory accumulation in January [30] - Strategy: Consider buying TA05 on dips. Focus on the range of [4980 - 5100] for TA [31] MEG - Core View: Supply - demand weakened, and there was an expectation of inventory accumulation. Consider shorting on rebounds [32] - Market Performance: EG05 closed at 3619 yuan/ton, down 56 [32] - Fundamental Analysis: Domestic device loads increased, and overseas devices were expected to reduce loads. Downstream demand was good but expected to weaken, and port inventories were rising [33] - Strategy: Consider shorting EG05 on rebounds. Focus on the range of [3680 - 3770] for EG05 [34] Methanol - Core View: Port inventory decreased, but demand was under pressure. Be cautious about chasing long positions [35] - Market Performance: Not specifically mentioned in a prominent way [37] - Fundamental Analysis: Spot prices in Taicang weakened slightly, and the negative basis strengthened. Supply pressure remained as the arrival volume in December was estimated to be about 1.3 million tons, and demand weakened slightly [37] - Strategy: Do not chase long positions. Consider buying methanol 05 on dips [39] Urea - Core View: Supply - side pressure was expected to increase, and the market oscillated weakly [40] - Market Performance: URO5 closed at 1697 yuan/ton [40] - Fundamental Analysis: Gas - based urea device operations decreased significantly, but overall load was still high. Demand was expected to weaken, and inventory was at a relatively high level [41][42] - Strategy: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider buying UR05 on dips. Focus on the range of [1670 - 1690] for UR05 [43] LNG - Core View: Supply was sufficient, and gas prices were under downward pressure [44] - Market Performance: On December 19, the NG main contract closed at 3.984 dollars/million British thermal units, up 1.94% [46] - Fundamental Analysis: Demand support decreased due to mild weather in the US, and supply was relatively abundant [47] - Strategy: Although there is demand support in the consumption season, gas prices are under downward pressure due to sufficient supply. Focus on the range of [3.895 - 4.260] for NG [47] Asphalt - Core View: South American geopolitical uncertainty vs. weak supply - demand, the market oscillated within a range [48] - Market Performance: The main contract (2602) closed at 2909 yuan/ton, down 1.46% [48] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply was relatively sufficient, and demand entered the off - season. The cracking spread and BU - FU spread were returning to normal but still had room for compression [50] - Strategy: Partially close short positions due to South American geopolitical uncertainty. Focus on the range of [2950 - 3050] for BU [51] Glass - Core View: Factory inventory ended a three - week decline, and the market oscillated at a low level [52] - Market Performance: FG05 closed at 1041 yuan/ton, down 2.0% [52] - Fundamental Analysis: High inventory constrained the rebound space. The melting volume remained stable, and demand was weak. Process profits turned negative [54] - Strategy: Partially close short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Focus on the range of [1000 - 1050] for FG [54] Soda Ash - Core View: Warehouse receipts increased, and the market oscillated weakly [55] - Market Performance: SA05 closed at 1176 yuan/ton, down 1.4% [56] - Fundamental Analysis: Warehouse receipts continued to increase, and although short - term supply pressure was relieved by maintenance, long - term supply was expected to be loose due to the planned commissioning of a new device. Demand support was insufficient [58]