格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20251223

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile" [1] Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Treasury bond futures may be volatile, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, most of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened higher, fluctuated downward in the morning, and then fluctuated horizontally after further decline in the afternoon. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.28%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.09%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.06%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.02% [1] Important Information - Open Market: On Monday, the central bank conducted 67.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 130.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 63.6 billion yuan. The LPR quotes in December remained stable, with the 1 - year LPR at 3% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5% [1] - Funds Market: On Monday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.27% (the same as the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.43% (compared with 1.44% in the previous trading day) [1] - Cash Bond Market: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds mostly rose compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 1.00 BP to 1.37%, the 5 - year increased by 0.62 BP to 1.61%, the 10 - year increased by 1.07 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year increased by 1.60 BP to 2.24% [1] - Policy Meeting: On December 22, Premier Li of the State Council chaired a meeting of the leading group for the preparation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" Outline Draft to study the preparation work and plan a number of major projects, major projects, and major carriers [1] Market Logic - In November, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 1.3% year - on - year, both lower than market expectations. The export growth rate in November was 5.9%, exceeding market expectations. China's CPI and core CPI both decreased by 0.1% month - on - month in November, while PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, with inflation remaining moderate. The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth is still the main line of the macro - economy in the fourth quarter. The People's Bank of China Party Committee meeting pointed out that next year, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, with promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations for monetary policy. On Monday, the Wind All - A Index opened higher, moved higher, and then fluctuated horizontally, closing 0.98% higher than the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.88 trillion yuan, a slight increase from 1.75 trillion yuan in the previous trading day [1] Trading Strategy - Treasury bond futures may be volatile in the short term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]