Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The overall outlook for various futures markets is diverse. Some markets are expected to have upward trends, some to be in a weak or strong oscillation, and some are recommended for specific trading strategies such as waiting for opportunities or light - position participation [6] [7] [9]. Summary by Categories Bonds - Treasury Bonds: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted 67.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 22, with a net withdrawal of 63.6 billion yuan. LPR remained unchanged for 7 consecutive months. Given the current situation, treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure [5]. - Investment Strategy: Remain cautious [6]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The CSRC will halve the delivery fees of stock index futures and treasury bond futures and the exercise (performance) fees of stock index options from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026. - Investment Strategy: The volatility center of the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [7]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the gold and silver main contracts rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", and the possible continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are all beneficial to precious metals. - Investment Strategy: Wait and see for now and wait for opportunities to go long [9]. Steel and Iron - related Products - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. In the medium term, the price is mainly determined by industry supply and demand. The demand for rebar is in a downward trend year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. Although the supply pressure has eased, the inventory is higher than last year. - Investment Strategy: Investors can pay attention to shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds and manage positions carefully [11]. - Iron Ore: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures may face resistance near the previous high. - Investment Strategy: Investors can pay attention to shorting opportunities at high levels and manage positions carefully [13]. - Coking Coal and Coke: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. The supply of coking coal decreased in December, and the procurement of downstream coking enterprises increased. The third - round price cut of coke spot procurement has started, and the demand from steel mills has weakened. - Investment Strategy: Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels and manage positions carefully [16]. - Ferroalloys: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose. The supply of manganese ore decreased, and the cost of ferroalloys increased. The demand for ferroalloys was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. - Investment Strategy: Consider long - position opportunities at low levels after the expansion of spot losses [18]. Energy Products - Crude Oil: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened high and went high. The CFTC data showed that US funds reduced their net short positions, and the number of active oil and gas rigs in the US decreased. Barclays maintained its 2026 Brent crude price forecast. - Investment Strategy: Pay attention to long - position opportunities [19] [20]. - Fuel Oil: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly. The Asian spot fuel oil market was weak, but the on - shore inventory was relieved. The sudden tightness of Asian fuel oil supply and the stable trend of crude oil supported the fuel oil price. - Investment Strategy: Pay attention to long - position opportunities [22] [23]. Chemical Products - Polyolefin: On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou and the LLDPE market in Yuyao showed a downward trend. The supply pressure of standard products is expected to slow down slightly, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. - Investment Strategy: Pay attention to long - position opportunities [25]. - Synthetic Rubber: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The price was supported by cost and demand in the short term, and attention should be paid to the changes in supply - side equipment and demand - side recovery. - Market Outlook: Oscillate [27] [29]. - Natural Rubber: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell. The market is expected to have a long - short game, and the rubber price may oscillate. - Market Outlook: Oscillate [30] [31]. - PVC: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. The supply - demand imbalance continues, but the downward space may be limited. - Investment Strategy: Pay attention to the changes on the supply side [32] [33]. - Urea: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. The daily output of urea is expected to fluctuate slightly, and the demand is expected to increase slightly. - Market Outlook: The downward space is limited [34] [35]. - PX: On the previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose. The PXN spread is at a neutral - to - high level, and the short - term profit is improving. The supply - demand pattern has improved, and the cost of crude oil has a short - term driving force. - Investment Strategy: Pay attention to long - position opportunities at low levels, be vigilant about crude oil changes, and pay attention to macro - policy changes [36] [37]. - PTA: On the previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose. The supply load decreased, and the demand load remained stable. The processing fee decreased, and the inventory was low. - Investment Strategy: Consider long - position opportunities following the cost side, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [38]. - Ethylene Glycol: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell. The supply pressure increased, the port inventory continued to rise, and the demand support weakened slightly. - Investment Strategy: Consider trading within the range and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [39] [40]. - Short Fiber: On the previous trading day, the short fiber 2602 main contract rose. The supply decreased but remained at a high level, the demand support weakened, and the cost - driving force increased. - Investment Strategy: Follow the cost - side logic, pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments, and control risks [41]. - Bottle Chip: On the previous trading day, the bottle chip 2603 main contract rose. The processing fee decreased, the supply load decreased slightly, and the export growth rate increased. - Investment Strategy: Follow the cost - side logic and control risks [42]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract was flat. The macro - situation is complex, with concerns about economic recession and speculation about Fed rate cuts. The fundamentals remain in a tight balance, and the copper price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. - Market Outlook: High - level oscillation [44] [45]. - Aluminum: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract fell, and the alumina main contract rose. The alumina supply is in surplus, and the aluminum price may maintain a high - level oscillation. - Market Outlook: High - level oscillation [46] [47]. - Zinc: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract fell. The zinc price lacks strong driving force, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust. - Market Outlook: Oscillate and adjust [48] [49]. - Lead: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose slightly. The consumption is in the off - season, and the lead price is expected to oscillate weakly within a range. - Market Outlook: Oscillate within a range [50] [51]. - Tin: On the previous trading day, the tin main contract fell. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. The tin price is expected to oscillate strongly. - Market Outlook: Oscillate strongly [53]. - Nickel: On the previous trading day, the nickel main contract rose. The Indonesian policy risk increases, and the nickel market is in a surplus pattern. - Investment Strategy: Pay attention to relevant Indonesian policies [54]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts rose. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal grows moderately, and the demand for soybean oil improves slightly. - Investment Strategy: Pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal at the low - cost support interval and long - position opportunities for soybean oil call options at the low interval [55] [56]. - Palm Oil: The Malaysian palm oil price rose. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium - to - low level in the past 7 years. - Investment Strategy: Wait and see for now [57] [59]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: The Canadian rapeseed price rebounded. The domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are in the process of destocking. - Investment Strategy: Wait and see for now [60] [61]. - Cotton: The domestic cotton price oscillated strongly, and the international cotton price oscillated weakly. The domestic cotton output increased, but the inventory accumulation was less than expected, and the cotton price is expected to run strongly. - Market Outlook: Run strongly [62] [64]. - Sugar: The domestic sugar price rebounded slightly, and the international sugar price rose. The domestic sugar supply pressure is increasing, but the 01 contract is lower than the spot price, and the current warehouse receipt volume is low. - Market Outlook: Run weakly and oscillate [66] [69]. - Apple: The domestic apple futures oscillated. The apple inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the output and quality have declined. The apple price is expected to run strongly. - Market Outlook: Run strongly [70] [71]. - Pig: The national average pig price rose slightly. The northern market may turn stronger, and the southern market may slow down its decline. - Investment Strategy: Wait and see [73] [74]. - Egg: The egg price remained flat. The egg supply in December may remain at a high level, but the demand is weak. - Investment Strategy: Wait and see for now [75] [77]. - Corn and Starch: The corn and corn starch main contracts rose slightly. The northern port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the demand for corn maintains a slight growth trend. Corn starch may follow the corn market. - Investment Strategy: Wait for the release of supply pressure [78] [80].
西南期货早间评论-20251223
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-12-23 02:36