YILI(SH:600887)2025-12-23 02:56Investment Rating - The report rates the dairy industry as "Overweight" compared to the market, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Yili Co., Ltd. is expected to benefit from domestic substitution in the dairy industry and opportunities for product diversification [2]. - The current dairy price downcycle has lasted for nearly three years, driven by rigid supply and weak demand, but several positive signals suggest an impending turning point [18][32]. - The B-end market for dairy products is growing rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.9% from 2021 to 2024, significantly outpacing the C-end market, which is experiencing a decline [38]. Summary by Sections Dairy Price Cycle - The current downcycle in raw milk prices has persisted for 49 months, with a decline of 30.6% since September 2021 [7][9]. - The average milk yield per cow has been on an upward trend since 2018, with the scale of dairy farming expected to reach 78% by 2024 [8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side remains rigid due to high barriers for large-scale farms to exit, while demand has been weak, leading to a prolonged price downcycle [9][18]. - Dairy companies are reducing purchases of raw milk to manage inventory, further pressuring raw milk prices [19]. B-end Market Opportunities - The B-end market for dairy products is characterized by a low current share but high growth potential, particularly in fresh milk, which is expected to dominate B-end consumption [34][38]. - Domestic dairy companies are increasingly focusing on the B-end market through partnerships and product innovations to capture market share from imported brands [39][40]. C-end Market Diversification - The liquid milk segment is stabilizing, with flavored milk beverages gaining market share, while low-temperature fresh milk is experiencing volume growth despite price pressures [51][52]. - The cheese market is facing challenges, with a projected decline in retail volume and per capita consumption from 2022 to 2024, but there is a push towards original cheese production to meet health trends [56][63]. Financial Performance and Competitive Position - Yili Co., Ltd. has maintained a strong competitive position with a higher gross margin compared to its peers, benefiting from a diversified product portfolio and effective distribution strategies [64][71]. - The company's sales expense ratio has decreased significantly, enhancing its profitability relative to competitors [71].