华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251223

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The report suggests paying attention to macro - policy, downstream demand, macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Logic: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival, with an estimated impact on the total building steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown schedules, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons. From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year. The finished products market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2][3] - Viewpoint: The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner [3] - Later Concerns: Macro - policy and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Ingots - Logic: Overseas data has increased the optimistic sentiment towards interest rate cuts, providing macro - level support. Domestically, for domestic bauxite, the northern resumption is slow and the supply is unstable, but the alumina plant's inventory has reached a high level, so the price may decline. For imported bauxite, Guinea's shipping volume is high and a large mining project is resuming production, which will support future supply. The aluminum price rose yesterday, and with the improvement of Xinjiang's shipping and a large number of arrivals this week, along with environmental protection restrictions affecting downstream processing enterprises, the receiving sentiment weakened on Monday. The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises decreased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased [2][3] - Viewpoint: The aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [4] - Later Concerns: Macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mine resumption, and consumption release [4]