【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA马棕12月前20日产量环比下滑 7.15% USDA美豆当周出口检验87.02万吨符合预期 20251223-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The market situation of various agricultural products and energy commodities is complex. The production of Malaysian palm oil has declined, and its export volume shows different trends according to different institutions' data. The soybean production and export in the Americas are affected by weather and market demand. The domestic trading volume and inventory of agricultural products also show different changes, and the macro - economic situation at home and abroad has an impact on the market [5][6][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and price changes of multiple commodities are presented, including BMD's March palm oil futures (4016.00, up 2.07% the previous day and 0.73% overnight), ICE's March Brent crude oil futures (61.54, up 2.36% the previous day and 0.31% overnight), and NYMEX's February US crude oil futures (57.95, up 2.49% the previous day and 0.29% overnight) [1]. - The latest prices and price changes of multiple currencies are also provided, such as the US dollar index (98.29, down 0.42%), and the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar (7.0572, up 0.03%) [1]. Spot Market Quotes - The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE's palm oil 2601, soybean oil 2605, and soybean meal 2605 in different regions are given. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 8420, with a basis of 110 and no change in basis overnight [2]. - The CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes of imported soybeans from different regions are presented. The CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans is 149 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 444 dollars per ton [2]. Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - The weather conditions in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil are favorable or continuously improving. There will be sporadic showers in some states before Tuesday, and the overall soil moisture is improving [3]. - In the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina, most areas have suitable soil humidity for soybean growth after a frontal passage brought widespread rainfall last weekend [3]. International Supply and Demand - From December 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.15% month - on - month, with a 6.26% decline in fresh fruit bunch yield per unit and a 0.17% decrease in oil extraction rate [5]. - Different institutions' data on Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 20 show different trends. AmSpec reported a 0.87% decrease compared to the same period last month, while SGS reported a 43.6% increase [5][6]. - The MPOC expects that the Malaysian palm oil market will stabilize in 2026, with exports increasing to 16.2 million tons and production growing moderately to 19.7 million tons [6]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports in November decreased by 13.4% month - on - month to 1.748 million tons [7]. - USDA data shows that the US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending December 18, 2025, was 870,199 tons, in line with expectations [7]. - USDA export sales reports for the week ending December 4 show that US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil have different export sales and shipment situations. For example, US soybean export sales increased by 40% compared to the previous week, and the export shipment increased by 33% [8]. - Analysts expect that in the week ending December 11, US soybean export sales will net increase by 1.8 - 2.9 million tons, soybean meal by 275,000 - 550,000 tons, and soybean oil by 500 - 24,000 tons [9][10]. - As of December 20, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 97.6%, and AgRural expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach 180.4 million tons [10]. - Brazil exported 2,442,367.61 tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of December, with an average daily export volume 70% higher than that of the whole month of December last year [11]. - The Baltic Dry Index continued to decline on Monday, with all ship - type freight indices weakening [11]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On December 22, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 68,700 tons, a 304% increase from the previous trading day [13]. - On December 22, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased by 40,600 tons compared to the previous day, and the overall oil mill operating rate was 55.88%, a 0.16% decrease from the previous day [13]. - As of December 19, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 700,000 tons, a 7.25% increase from the previous week, and the soybean oil inventory was 1.1235 million tons, a 1.22% decrease from the previous week [13]. - China's palm oil imports in November 2025 were 334,052.37 tons, a 52.25% month - on - month increase; soybean imports were 8.10736476 million tons, a 14.50% month - on - month decrease [14]. - On December 22, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index decreased slightly compared to last Friday [16]. Macroeconomic News International News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 19.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 80.1% [18]. - The US Chicago Fed National Activity Index in November was - 0.21, lower than the expected - 0.17 [18]. - A former Bank of Japan board member said that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates three times to 1.5% during the remaining term of Governor Ueda Kazuo until early 2028 [18]. Domestic News - On December 22, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0572, up 22 points (depreciation of the Chinese yuan) [20]. - On December 22, the People's Bank of China conducted 67.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 63.6 billion yuan due to the maturity of 130.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [20]. Market Capital Flow On December 22, 2025, the net inflow of funds into the futures market was 17.854 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 17.605 billion yuan into the commodity futures market and a net outflow of 14 million yuan from stock index futures and 30 million yuan from treasury bond futures [22]. Arbitrage Tracking No information provided.