华宝期货碳酸锂晨报：区间震荡加剧，聚焦资金博弈和情绪驱动成材，重心下移偏弱运行-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of building materials continues to move downward, with the price hitting a new low. In a pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. The winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak support for the price, and it will operate in an oscillatory consolidation manner [3] - The lithium carbonate futures price shows an interval oscillation pattern, with the main contract running between RMB 109,000 and RMB 116,500 per ton. The significant increase in the market is mainly affected by capital sentiment. The interval oscillation intensifies, and it's necessary to be vigilant about capital and sentiment fluctuations, and pay attention to the marginal changes in supply and demand [2][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Building Materials - Logic: Most short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region stopped production for maintenance from mid - to late January during the Spring Festival, and are expected to resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total production of construction steel of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. Among 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui Province, 1 mill started to shut down on January 5th, and most of the remaining mills will shut down around mid - January, with a few mills expected to shut down after January 20th, with a daily impact on production of about 16,200 tons [2] - Market performance: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [3] - Future focus: Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3] Lithium Carbonate - Logic: The lithium carbonate futures price shows an interval oscillation, and the significant increase in the market is mainly affected by capital sentiment. The spot price is rising, the market activity is decreasing, and the annual long - term contract negotiation between upstream and downstream enterprises is still in progress [2] - Supply: The raw material price rises, strengthening cost support. Last week, the total weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate increased by 0.21% week - on - week, and the weekly output increased by 0.21% week - on - week. The lithium spodumene process became the core increment of production, and the industry's production capacity release rhythm advanced steadily [3] - Demand: In the short term, the demand slightly decreased, but the long - term resilience remained unchanged. Last week, the production of ternary and lithium - iron batteries decreased week - on - week, and the inventory continued to decline. The production of power cells decreased slightly week - on - week but increased significantly year - on - year. The sales of new energy vehicles showed short - term fluctuations [3] - Inventory: Last week, the weekly inventory of SMM samples decreased slightly by 0.9% week - on - week, continuing the destocking state, and the destocking slope slowed down. The total inventory days decreased by 1.1% week - on - week. There was phased inventory accumulation in other links. The social inventory showed a state of inventory accumulation, with a month - on - month decrease of 54.71%. The core pattern of tight overall industry inventory has not changed [3] - Macro policy: The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form synergistic benefits, providing support for the long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate [4] - Market sentiment: The collective price increase of battery manufacturers (such as Degjia Energy's 15% increase) drives the sentiment to warm up, but it is necessary to pay attention to the disturbances of overseas resource/restart news and domestic lithium mine production capacity dynamics. In addition, news such as the adjustment of trading limits for lithium carbonate futures contracts by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the publicity of the mining project of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo lithium mine also have a phased impact on the market sentiment [4] - Future focus: The implementation of macro policies, the progress of production capacity release, the resilience of downstream demand, the destocking slope of sample inventory, and capital and sentiment [4]