Group 1: Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core View - The high - frequency consumption performance is slightly weak. The downstream in the spot market purchases as needed, social inventory stops falling, and the spot premium continues to strengthen. The import window for zinc ore is open, the domestic ore TC stops falling, and the smelters' enthusiasm for zinc ore procurement has decreased. The comprehensive smelting loss of smelters has expanded, with more overhauls in December, reducing supply pressure. The consumption side remains strong, and the fundamentals are still bullish. Zinc is currently undervalued, and there is optimism about future consumption with unchanged interest - rate cut expectations and unreflected re - inflation [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$30.61/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of 110 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,070 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On December 22, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,075 yuan/ton, closed at 23,115 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 134,424 lots, and the open interest was 90,612 lots. The highest price was 23,150 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,980 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: As of December 22, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 124,500 tons, up 0.23 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 99,250 tons, down 650 tons from the previous trading day [4]
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Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-12-23 02:55