新能源及有色金属日报：铝土矿价格承压下滑-20251223

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Core View - In the short term, aluminum consumption is entering the off - season, spot discounts are widening, social inventory is difficult to reduce, and high - frequency fundamental data restricts the upside of aluminum prices. In the long run, overseas power costs may increase, and there may be additional sudden production cuts. The absolute value of domestic inventory is still low, and with the expectation of interest rate and reserve requirement cuts in China, the decline in aluminum prices is limited. For alumina, the supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged, and social inventory will continue to increase [6][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 21,930 yuan/ton, with a change of 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium/discount is - 170 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton. Central China A00 aluminum price is 21,770 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changes - 50 yuan/ton to - 330 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 21,860 yuan/ton, with a change of 110 yuan/ton, and the aluminum spot premium/discount changes - 20 yuan/ton to - 240 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On December 22, 2025, the main Shanghai aluminum contract opened at 22,295 yuan/ton, closed at 22,220 yuan/ton (a change of 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day), with a maximum price of 22,365 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 22,095 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 253,929 lots, and the position was 314,299 lots [2] Inventory - As of December 22, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 600,000 tons, a change of 22,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 76,088 tons, a change of - 100 tons from the previous trading day; LME aluminum inventory was 519,600 tons, with no change from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On December 22, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,730 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,655 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,750 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,800 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,830 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 313 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On December 22, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 2,504 yuan/ton and closed at 2,498 yuan/ton (a change of - 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change rate of - 1.03%), with a maximum price of 2,526 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,473 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 170,083 lots, and the position was 151,207 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On December 22, 2025, the Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price was 16,700 yuan/ton, the mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 17,000 yuan/ton, and the prices were unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 21,300 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 72,300 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 58,300 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,188 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 12 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis of Alumina - The procurement tender price of 10,000 tons of alumina delivered to Xinjiang electrolytic aluminum plants is 2,940 - 2,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 - 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The 1Q2026 long - term contract price of Guinea bauxite is 66.5 US dollars/ton, and the price in Q4 2025 was 72 US dollars/ton. The supply - surplus pattern of alumina remains unchanged, and social inventory will continue to increase. Electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material inventory, and the winter storage expectation is low [7][8]