降息与地缘共振，贵金属延续强势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Amid the resonance of interest rate cuts and geopolitical factors, precious metals continue to be strong. The current inflation - expectation game stage focuses on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. While the market sentiment is still high, there are risks of policy expectation reversals at home and abroad. It is necessary to track the sentiment - driven market trends and also prepare risk plans for potential adjustments [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy Expectations in China: The Politburo meeting on December 8 emphasized "continuing to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy" and "increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment efforts". The Central Economic Work Conference on December 11 focused on boosting consumption and "anti - involution". Multiple ministries responded: the central bank will use reserve - requirement ratio and interest rate cuts; the NDRC will boost consumption and promote new growth drivers; the Ministry of Finance will use government bonds and issue ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. China's November foreign trade growth rebounded significantly (exports +5.9% and imports +1.9% year - on - year in US dollars), but the economic data was still under pressure, and the LPR remained unchanged for the seventh consecutive month (5 - year above LPR at 3.5%, 1 - year LPR at 3%) [1] - US Federal Reserve: The Fed's December meeting announced the purchase of $40 billion in short - term bonds in the next 30 days and a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut as expected. The median of the dot - plot maintains the expectation of one interest rate cut each in the next two years. The Fed may pause rate cuts again. The US employment and PMI data are weak. The slowdown of the Fed's rate - cut pace and the Bank of Japan's rate hike in December have led to a currently positive market driven by sentiment, but risks need to be watched [2] - Bank of Japan: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points on December 19 as expected. The impact of the rate hike is limited as the proportion of overseas holders of Japanese government bonds is low and the net long position of the US dollar against the yen has not increased significantly. On December 22, Japanese long - term bonds tumbled [3] - Commodity Market: In the current inflation - expectation game, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. The non - ferrous metal sector has high certainty due to long - term supply constraints. In the energy sector, some countries have submitted additional production - cut plans, and the EU will stop importing Russian natural gas by 2027. In the chemical sector, there is "anti - involution" space for some products. In the agricultural products sector, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods. For precious metals, look for buying opportunities on dips, but short - term silver risks have risen [3] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] To - do News - The market trended strongly with the Shanghai Composite Index back above 3900 and the ChiNext Index up more than 2%. Over 2900 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rose, with trading volume exceeding 1.88 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.23% [5] - China's LPR remained unchanged for the seventh consecutive month (5 - year above LPR at 3.5%, 1 - year LPR at 3%) [5] - Japanese government bond yields rose, with the 2 - year yield at 1.105% (the highest since 1997), the 5 - year yield up 3.5 basis points to 1.52%, and the 20 - year yield up 3 basis points to 3% [5] - The US intercepted a tanker in international waters near Venezuela. The tanker was under US sanctions [5] - The US dollar against the yen fell about 20 points, and the Japanese finance minister warned speculators [5] - Spot gold hit a record high, spot silver rose more than 3% above $69 per ounce, LME copper prices neared a record high, and spot platinum rose above $2000 per ounce for the first time since 2008 [5]