看涨情绪持续，碳酸锂盘面继续冲高

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current price of lithium carbonate is mainly dominated by supply - side interference news, with over - speculation. The inventory depletion rate continues to slow down, there is a divergence between futures and spot markets, and the short - term increase is too large, so the risk of a callback should be警惕 [4] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - On December 22, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 109,000 yuan/ton and closed at 114,380 yuan/ton, with a 3.98% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,007,441 lots, and the open interest was 671,889 lots (the previous trading day's open interest was 672,711 lots). The current basis is - 15,700 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 16,411 lots, a change of 900 lots from the previous trading day [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 96,000 - 102,000 yuan/ton, a change of 1,350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 94,700 - 98,000 yuan/ton, a change of 1,300 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,385 US dollars/ton, a change of 50 US dollars/ton from the previous day. In November 2025, China's total lithium carbonate imports were about 22,055 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 15%, with an average import price of about 9,915 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11% compared to the October average price. The import volume of spodumene reached 729,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 12%, equivalent to about 81,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Australia was the main source of the increase, with an import volume of 425,000 tons in that month, a significant month - on - month increase of 44% and accounting for 58% of the total import volume. The imports from Zimbabwe were 110,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28%; the imports from Nigeria were 92,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16%. In addition, 73,000 tons of spodumene ore from Mali arrived at the port [2] Inventory - According to SMM statistics, the spot inventory is 110,425 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,044 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 18,090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,071 tons; the downstream inventory is 41,485 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,253 tons; other inventories are 50,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,280 tons. The overall inventory in December is expected to continue the destocking pattern, but the destocking has slowed down, and attention should be paid to whether there is an inventory inflection point at the end of the month [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, pay attention to consumption and inventory inflection points, and sell hedging on rallies when the opportunity arises. Options, cross - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures strategies are not provided [4][5]