美国芳烃备货中，PTA/PX延续强势

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PTA/PX market remains strong as the US is in the process of aromatics stockpiling. From December 1st to 20th, South Korea exported 0.43 tons of MX, 4.5 tons of PX, and 1.48 tons of toluene to the US [1]. - Crude oil has rebounded due to escalating geopolitical conflicts, with Venezuela becoming a short - term market focus. However, there is still significant downward pressure on oil prices in Q1 next year. Near - term market liquidity may be affected by overseas holidays and commodity index fund rebalancing at the beginning of the year [2]. - PX: The PXN was $335/ton (a $30.01/ton increase from the previous period). PX units are operating stably. With good expectations for the first half of next year, PXN has risen significantly. Even if there are fluctuations in the reformer start - up of some factories, PX production can still be effectively maintained. The monthly spread has strengthened recently, and there are many PX maintenance plans in Q2 next year, with positive long - term expectations. The strong polyester start - up rate supports PXN. In the gasoline blending aspect, gasoline cracking has shown no obvious improvement, but the US has started aromatics stockpiling [2]. - TA: The spot basis of the TA main contract is - 14 yuan/ton (a 4 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee is 144 yuan/ton (a 3 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), and the processing fee on the main contract's futures price is 306 yuan/ton (a 27 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period). Downstream raw material inventories have reached a low level, and the replenishment demand of polyester factories has increased significantly, driving the spot basis to strengthen. There are many near - term maintenance plans, and the cancellation of India's BIS has boosted PTA export demand. With the support of polyester load, the December balance sheet shows inventory reduction, and there is no pressure for inventory accumulation in January, which is better than previously expected. In the long run, as the period of concentrated capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [3]. - Demand: The polyester start - up rate is 91.1% (a 0.1% decrease from the previous period). The weaving load has been declining rapidly recently. Since the end of November, domestic trade orders have weakened rapidly, and grey fabric inventories have started to accumulate rapidly. Although samples for spring - summer and foreign trade orders for next year have been made, large - scale orders have not been placed yet. It is expected that the start - up rate will decline more rapidly from late December. The polyester load remains strong for now, with increasing pressure on filament profits but acceptable inventory pressure. After the inventory of bottle - chip factories decreased, their load has rebounded. In the short term, the polyester load is expected to remain stable at around 91%, and a decline is expected around January [3]. - PF: The spot production profit is 142 yuan/ton (a 32 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). The fundamentals of direct - spun polyester staple fiber have not changed much, with low inventory. As raw material prices rise rapidly, the processing margin is under pressure. In terms of demand, the sales of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn are average, with a slight decline in load and a slight increase in inventory [4]. - PR: The spot processing fee for polyester bottle - chips is 423 yuan/ton (a 9 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). Polyester bottle - chip factories have raised prices following raw materials, and the overall processing margin has been compressed to below 500 yuan. Fundamentally, the load of bottle - chip factories has remained unchanged, but as their inventory has declined, the load has rebounded. Additionally, a new 300,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip plant in Shandong Fuhai has started production. In the future, bottle - chip supply may increase, and the short - term processing margin for polyester bottle - chips is expected to be limited, with market prices following raw material fluctuations [4]. - Strategy: For PX/PTA/PF/PR, a cautious and bullish stance is recommended. In the short term, prices have risen rapidly due to capital concentration, and the risk of price retracement due to capital reduction should be watched. For PX, there are many maintenance plans in Q2 next year, with positive long - term expectations, and the strong polyester start - up rate supports PXN. For TA, there are many near - term maintenance plans, with inventory reduction in December and no inventory accumulation pressure in January, and PTA processing fees are expected to improve in the long run. For PF, the load is high, and factory inventory is low. At low - price stages, downstream buyers will make appropriate purchases, but due to few orders from downstream yarn mills, there is no strong willingness for large - scale inventory building or chasing high prices, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate. For PR, although the inventory of bottle - chip factories has decreased due to increased recent transactions, supply is expected to increase, and the processing margin for polyester bottle - chips is expected to be limited, with market prices following raw material fluctuations [5]. - Cross - variety: No strategy provided - Cross - period: A long position in the PTA and PX 5 - 9 spread is recommended [6] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and cross - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and cross - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][23] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [27][28] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [29][32][36] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][40][41] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate [49][51][56] PF Detailed Data - Figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, difference between original and recycled fibers, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [68][72][77] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, difference between East China water bottle - chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [90][92][97]