化工日报：青岛港口库存继续回升-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral. BR is also rated neutral. [11] 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic natural rubber price is weak, with the spot price of tire rubber slowing down. Domestic port and social inventories are continuously increasing. The cost - side support for natural rubber remains strong, but the supply is likely to increase. The increase in domestic port inventory and the off - season of downstream demand make it difficult for the tire factory's operating rate to rise, and the inventory accumulation is expected to continue. [11] - For BR, upstream maintenance is relatively less, and the supply will remain abundant. Downstream tire demand is weak, and the operating rate of tire factories may decline. However, the upstream raw material cost support may continue, and the butadiene price is expected to remain firm. [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,205 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,355 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,230 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton. [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,470 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,755 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. [1] Market Information - In November 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98%. [2] - In November 2025, heavy - truck sales were 113,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 65%. In the same month, China's automobile production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, with month - on - month increases of 5.1% and 3.2%, and year - on - year increases of 2.8% and 3.4%. [3] - In the first 10 months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. [3] - In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spread: On December 22, 2025, the RU basis was - 355 yuan/ton (- 15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 735 yuan/ton (+ 15), the NR basis was 595.00 yuan/ton (+ 9.00). [5] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 58.40 Thai baht/kg (- 0.31), the price of Thai glue was 56.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), the price of Thai cup rubber was 50.75 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), and the spread between Thai glue and cup rubber was 5.25 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00). [6] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.61% (- 0.94%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.01% (- 0.13%). [7] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 515,227 tons (+ 16,339), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,152,918 tons (+ 29,512), the RU futures inventory was 87,160 tons (+ 30,170), and the NR futures inventory was 58,968 tons (- 605). [7] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Spread: On December 22, 2025, the BR basis was - 380 yuan/ton (- 60), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 7,800 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,900 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton (+ 100), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,550 yuan/ton (+ 100), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 896 yuan/ton (+ 51). [8] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 76.26% (+ 5.58%). [9] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,410 tons (+ 960), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,600 tons (+ 1,100). [10]