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Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Cross - period: Wait - and - see; Cross - variety: None [4] - Caustic Soda: Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: Wait - and - see; Cross - variety: None [4] Core Viewpoints - PVC is affected by macro - sentiment and rebounds, with a marginal improvement in supply - demand. The overall supply decreases slightly, but the supply end is still abundant. The downstream starts to decline slightly, and the export orders remain resilient. The comprehensive production profit of upstream PVC has some repair, but the overall improvement in supply - demand is limited [3]. - Caustic soda rebounds due to anti - involution sentiment, and the supply - demand improves slightly. The spot price is mainly stable, and the inventory pressure is partially relieved. The supply - end start - up rate decreases slightly, and the demand side has different performances in different sectors [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC main contract is 4591 yuan/ton (- 61), the East China basis is - 231 yuan/ton (+ 21), and the South China basis is - 191 yuan/ton (+ 31) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quotation is 4360 yuan/ton (- 40), and the South China calcium carbide method quotation is 4400 yuan/ton (- 30) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 780 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2830 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is - 84 yuan/ton (+ 0), the production gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method is - 986 yuan/ton (+ 116), the production gross profit of PVC ethylene method is - 469 yuan/ton (+ 51), and the PVC export profit is - 5.6 US dollars/ton (+ 3.6) [1]. - Inventory and start - up: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 32.9 tons (- 1.6), the social inventory is 51.1 tons (- 0.7), the start - up rate of PVC calcium carbide method is 77.01% (- 2.12%), the start - up rate of PVC ethylene method is 74.06% (- 2.61%), and the overall start - up rate of PVC is 76.12% (- 2.27%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 76.2 tons (+ 11.4) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH main contract is 2181 yuan/ton (+ 17), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 69 yuan/ton (- 17) [1]. - Spot price: The quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 720 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the quotation of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1140 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1229 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 585.0 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 376.96 yuan/ton (- 20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 310.39 yuan/ton (- 20.00) [2]. - Inventory and start - up: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 46.47 tons (+ 0.76), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 3.51 tons (+ 0.06), and the start - up rate of caustic soda is 84.50% (- 1.70%) [2]. - Downstream start - up: The start - up rate of alumina is 85.00% (- 1.11%), the start - up rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 62.06% (- 0.68%), and the start - up rate of viscose staple fiber is 89.62% (+ 0.00%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Affected by macro - sentiment, PVC rebounds, and the supply - demand marginally improves. The supply decreases slightly, but the supply end is still abundant. The downstream start - up decreases slightly, and the export orders remain resilient. The comprehensive production profit of upstream PVC has some repair, but the overall improvement in supply - demand is limited [3]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda futures price rebounds due to anti - involution sentiment, and the supply - demand improves slightly. The spot price is mainly stable, and the inventory pressure is partially relieved. The supply - end start - up rate decreases slightly, and the demand side has different performances in different sectors [3].