印尼镍矿供给干扰情绪延续，镍不锈钢维持反弹

Group 1: Report Title and General Situation - The report is titled "New Energy and Non - Ferrous Metals Daily Report | December 23, 2025", stating that the sentiment of supply disruption in Indonesian nickel mines continues, and nickel and stainless steel maintain a rebound [1] Group 2: Nickel Variety Analysis Market Analysis - On December 22, 2025, the main contract 2602 of Shanghai nickel opened at 116,600 yuan/ton and closed at 121,260 yuan/ton, a change of 4.55% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 196,376 (-14,261) lots, and the open interest was 57,011 (18,484) lots. The futures showed a strong rebound with high opening and high closing, driven by the resonance of Indonesian production - cut expectations and capital sentiment. However, due to factors such as high inventory and off - season demand, the short - term rebound cannot change the long - term supply surplus pattern [2] - In the nickel ore market, new tenders have started, and the price of nickel ore has remained stable. In the Philippines, the 1.3% nickel ore tender of the northern Benguet mine has not yet had a deal. Considering the impact of rainy weather, the shipping efficiency is acceptable. Downstream factories' production plans remain unchanged, and most need to stock up before the Spring Festival, so the mentality of pressing prices for raw material nickel ore procurement may slow down. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December (Phase II) has fallen by 0.11 - 0.18 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium remains at +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26, expected to remain flat [2] - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 124,900 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. With the sharp rise in futures prices, downstream wait - and - see sentiment has increased, and trading is average. The spot premiums and discounts of various brands of refined nickel are mostly stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel has changed by 100 yuan/ton to 6,700 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel has changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 38,922 (1,320) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,550 (612) tons [3] Strategy - With high inventory and an unchanged supply surplus pattern, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. The strategy for unilateral trading is mainly range - bound operations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trades [4] Group 3: Stainless Steel Variety Analysis Market Analysis - On December 22, 2025, the main contract 2602 of stainless steel opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 12,850 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 169,487 (-107,409) lots, and the open interest was 108,021 (-4,171) lots. The futures showed characteristics of "passively following the rise, shrinking volume, and weak rebound", reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards the fundamentals of stainless steel itself. In the short term, it may fluctuate with nickel prices, but in the long term, the supply - demand contradiction will still dominate the price [4] - With the strengthening of the futures market, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and they mainly purchase on demand. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,900 (+50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 12,900 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B are 180 to 380 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron has changed by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 885.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - With low demand, high inventory, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless steel is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation state. The unilateral trading strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trades [6] Group 4: Other Information - The report provides 14 figures, including LME closing and spot prices, Shanghai nickel main contract closing and SMM spot prices, refined nickel import profits and losses, etc., with data sources mainly from SMM and MySteel [7] - The analysts of this report are Feng Fan, Chen Sijie, and Shi Cheng, and the contact person is Lin Yihang, along with their corresponding qualification numbers [37][39]