研究所日报-20251223

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In 2025, China's A-share and H-share markets continued their rebound since late 2022, with returns of 16% and 29% respectively, mainly driven by valuation repair. Goldman Sachs predicts a cumulative 38% increase in the Chinese stock market by the end of 2027, fueled by profit growth and valuation expansion [6]. - Despite the increase in the effective US tariff on China from 11% to 29%, China's exports grew by 5.4% in 2025, and the RMB appreciated by 4% against the US dollar. The stock market's rise indicates that "unexpected trade resilience" offset the negative impact of "below - expected policies" [6]. - The release of DeepSeek - R1 triggered a surge in China's AI technology stocks, with an average increase of 40% in sectors such as data and cloud, semiconductors, and AI infrastructure, and a market value increase of over $2 trillion. AI popularization is estimated to boost Chinese enterprises' annual profit growth by 3% in the next decade [7]. - China's export resilience stems from structural transformation, and the overseas revenue share of listed companies is expected to reach 20% by 2030, driving the MSCI China Index's annual profit growth by about 1.5% [7]. - Overall consumption was suppressed by the real - estate slump, price drops, and slow income growth, but service consumption outperformed commodity consumption. "New consumption" sectors had strong profit growth and stock returns in 2025 [7]. - The "anti - involution" policy is expected to boost the profits of relevant industries. If supply contraction is implemented, the profits of involution - affected industries could increase by 50% by 2027 [8]. - Domestic and foreign investors are showing increased interest in the Chinese stock market, but global mutual funds are still underweight, indicating potential for incremental investment [8]. - Due to high valuations in the US market and a weakening US dollar, global funds are seeking alternatives, and China is favored for its low correlation with the US market and deep discounts [9]. 3. Summary by Category Real Estate - Vanke's 2 billion yuan bond extension plan for "22 Vanke MTN004" was rejected again. Vanke extended the grace period to 30 trading days, and the note will not default before January 28, 2026. Vanke's debt repayment issue is a landmark event for judging the policy orientation of resolving the real - estate industry's debt risks [2]. Finance - In December 2025, China's 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, both remaining unchanged for 7 consecutive months. Precious metal prices reached new highs, with London spot gold closing at $4443.97 per ounce and spot silver breaking through $69 per ounce on December 22. Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to rise to $4900 per ounce next year [3]. Stock Market - Global Stock Markets: On the day of the report, the A - share market generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.23%. Among international markets, Asian stock indexes led the gains, European indexes declined, and US stocks closed higher [4]. - Industry Performance: The top three industries in terms of daily gains were communication, comprehensive, and electronics. The top three industries in terms of daily net inflow of funds were communication, power equipment, and basic chemicals. The top three industries with net inflow of funds at the end of the day were non - ferrous metals, coal, and petroleum and petrochemicals. The top three themes in terms of daily gains were Hainan Free Trade Port, semiconductor equipment, and optical communication [20][22]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield was 1.8424%, with a change of 1.36BP. The average daily prices of inter - bank R001 and R007 were 1.3574% and 1.5063% respectively. The US dollar index closed at 98.2603, down 0.46%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB exchange rate closed at 7.0313, with the offshore RMB appreciating 23 basis points against the US dollar [4].