油价出现反弹，成本端支撑边际转强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for a clear bottom signal and consider left - side dip - buying [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Oil prices rebounded, providing stronger cost - side support. The increase in oil prices drove up downstream energy and chemical products including BU. However, the asphalt market still faces significant upward resistance. The northern market has stronger bottom support due to the continuous release of winter storage demand, while the southern market is under pressure. The contradiction of oversupply in the southern region needs time to be resolved, and the risk of raw material tightening is a potential upward driver. The market has a mix of long and short factors, and a bottom - up rebound requires a clearer signal [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 22, the closing price of the main BU2602 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 2995 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton or 2.57% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 217,171 lots, down 777 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 366,642 lots, up 37,421 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are: 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 2,850 - 3,270 yuan/ton in Shandong, 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,100 - 3,220 yuan/ton in East China [1] - The spot prices of asphalt in North China and Sichuan - Chongqing regions decreased slightly, while those in other regions remained generally stable. With the escalating geopolitical situation in South America and the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers, concerns about raw material tightening have increased, and the discount of diluted asphalt has rebounded [1] - The northern market has a warmer atmosphere due to the continuous release of winter storage demand, but the southern spot market is under pressure as major refineries have released more low - priced resources recently, increasing competitive pressure and suppressing the futures market [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a neutral stance, wait for a clear bottom signal and consider left - side dip - buying [2] - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [2] - Cross - period: No strategy provided [2] - Spot - futures: No strategy provided [2] - Options: No strategy provided [2] Figures - The report includes figures on asphalt spot prices in various regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures (unilateral, main contract), domestic asphalt weekly output (total, independent refineries, Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery, social) [3]