光大期货能化商品日报-20251223

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - All the energy - chemical products covered in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "volatile" [1][2] 2. Report's Core View - On Monday, the price center of crude oil shifted upwards, with WTI February contract rising by $1.49 to $58.01 per barrel (2.64% increase), Brent February contract rising by $1.60 to $62.07 per barrel (2.65% increase), and SC2601 closing at 439.7 yuan per barrel (1.71% increase). China's crude oil imports in November 2025 were 50.891 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.2% and a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. The geopolitical situation has heated up, pushing up oil prices [1]. - The fuel oil market showed an increase on Monday. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market also had some support. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Western market is expected to decline in December and may rebound in January. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by downstream demand [2]. - The asphalt price increased on Monday. Affected by the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela, the cost - side support is strong, but the terminal demand is weak. Considering the limited supply increase and low factory inventory, the downward price space is limited [2]. - In the polyester market, TA605 rose by 3.24% and EG2605 fell by 0.08%. Some MEG and PTA devices have restarted or are expected to restart. The demand is in the off - season, and although the upstream has good expectations for the 2026 supply - demand pattern, the terminal demand support for prices is limited [2][4]. - In the rubber market, on Monday, the main contract of natural rubber showed a mixed trend. The inventory in Qingdao increased. Domestic rubber production has entered the off - cutting period, overseas raw materials are expected to increase, and downstream demand weakens at the end of the year, so the rubber price is expected to fluctuate [4][6]. - The methanol market showed a bottom - oscillating trend. The supply of domestic overhaul devices is stable at a high level, and the Iranian supply remains low. The demand of MTO devices is expected to weaken, and the inventory may fluctuate in the future [6]. - The polyolefin market is expected to show a weak - oscillating trend. The production will remain at a high level, and the downstream orders and start - up rate are weakening [6]. - The PVC market is expected to be at the bottom and oscillate. The supply is expected to decline slightly, and domestic demand will slow down as the real estate construction slows down [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Monday, oil prices rose, and China's crude oil imports increased. The geopolitical situation, including the Russia - Ukraine issue and the US - Venezuela issue, has an impact on oil prices, and the short - term rhythm needs attention [1]. - Fuel Oil: The prices of the main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil increased. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply may change, and the high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by demand. The absolute price may follow the oil price, and the cracking spread may remain stable and rise [2]. - Asphalt: The asphalt price increased. The cost - side is supported by geopolitics, but the terminal demand is weak. Considering supply and inventory, the downward space is limited, and it may follow the oil price [2]. - Polyester: The price of TA605 rose, and EG2605 fell slightly. Some devices have restarted, the demand is in the off - season, and the price of PX and TA may rebound in the short - term with limited space, while the upward pressure on the ethylene glycol price is high [2][4]. - Rubber: The prices of different rubber varieties showed a mixed trend. The inventory in Qingdao increased, and considering production and demand, the rubber price is expected to oscillate [4][6]. - Methanol: The methanol price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. Domestic supply is stable at a high level, Iranian supply is low, MTO demand weakens, and inventory may fluctuate [6]. - Polyolefin: The polyolefin market is expected to be weak and oscillating. Production remains high, and downstream demand weakens [6]. - Polyvinyl Chloride: The PVC price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The supply may decline slightly, and domestic demand will slow down [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Base - price Information: The report provides the base - price data of various energy - chemical products on December 23, 2025, including the spot price, futures price, base price, base - price rate, and their changes compared with previous periods. For example, the base price of crude oil (SC) was - 8.76 yuan per barrel, and the base - price rate was - 2.02% [9]. 3.3 Market News - Geopolitical News: The Russia - Ukraine issue is still being watched. The tripartite meeting between Russia, the US, and Ukraine has not been seriously discussed, and Ukraine launched a drone attack on a Russian - related oil tanker. The US Coast Guard is chasing an oil tanker near Venezuela, and the US has announced a blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Price: The report shows the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] - Main Contract Base Price: The base - price charts of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., are presented, showing the base - price changes over time [30][32][35] - Inter - period Contract Price Difference: The price - difference charts of inter - period contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc., are provided, showing the price - difference changes between different contracts [43][44][45] - Inter - variety Price Difference: The price - difference and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external price difference, fuel oil high - low sulfur price difference, etc., are shown [60][62][65] - Production Profit: The production - profit charts of LLDPE and PP are presented [68] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - Research Team Members: The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences. For example, Zhong Meiyan is the assistant director and energy - chemical director, with rich experience in the futures derivatives market [73]