外汇专题报告：规模收敛但未转向，结售汇格局依旧平衡

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - The narrowing of the surplus in November's foreign exchange settlement and sales and cross - border receipts and payments mainly reflects structural and rhythm adjustments. Enterprises' foreign exchange settlement and sales and hedging behaviors tend to be rational, and cross - border capital flows remain stable without a directional change. The US dollar is still in the stage of repricing within a range, lacking a trend driver in the short term. Affected by this, the USD/CNY rate generally maintains a range - bound movement, mainly fluctuating around 7.0 - 7.1 in the short term, and a directional breakthrough still awaits new macro variables [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Supply - Demand Relationship Analysis - In November, the surplus in bank foreign exchange settlement and sales fell to $15.65 billion, showing a continuation of the surplus but a marginal slowdown. The overall foreign exchange supply - demand remains in a relatively balanced state. The scale of foreign exchange settlement and sales did not show a significant increase or decrease, indicating that cross - border capital flows are still mainly for regular receipts and payments. The narrowing of the surplus mainly reflects a rhythm change rather than a directional reversal. Against the backdrop of dull US dollar pricing and neutral corporate exchange - rate expectations, the marginal guidance of single - month foreign exchange settlement and sales data on the exchange rate has declined [9]. Foreign Exchange Market Supply - Demand Balance - The change in the surplus structure mainly comes from the cooling of the foreign exchange settlement momentum at the client - service end, while the deficit in banks' own foreign exchange settlement and sales narrows simultaneously, offsetting some of the pressure from the narrowing surplus. The surplus in client - service foreign exchange settlement and sales narrowed from $21.426 billion to $16.423 billion, indicating that enterprises at the end of the year prefer to disperse foreign exchange settlement and focus on operating cash - flow management rather than releasing foreign exchange settlement demand in a concentrated manner. At the same time, the deficit at the bank's self - operating end narrowed significantly, reflecting a phased relief of the pressure on financial institutions in matchmaking and position management, making the surplus structure of foreign exchange settlement and sales smoother and helping to stabilize the market's expectations of short - term exchange - rate fluctuations [10]. Forward Foreign Exchange Settlement and Purchase Intentions - In November, the RMB exchange rate strengthened moderately, and market trading activity rebounded. The average spot value of the USD/CNY rate decreased by 0.48% month - on - month, still operating in a moderately volatile range. Meanwhile, the spot inquiry trading volume in the inter - bank market rose to $40.342 billion, reflecting a recovery in market trading willingness. In this context, enterprises' spot - end operations became more rational. After excluding forward performance, the foreign exchange settlement rate of received funds fell to 51.99%, and the foreign exchange purchase rate of payment funds decreased to 60.30%, indicating that enterprises did not adjust their foreign exchange settlement and sales rhythm in a concentrated manner due to short - term exchange - rate fluctuations but maintained a relatively balanced receipt and payment management. On the forward end, the overall performance was a cooling of new hedging demand and a differentiated performance structure, indicating that enterprises are adjusting their focus on managing short - to - medium - term exchange - rate risks. In November, both the forward foreign exchange sales and settlement contract amounts declined, and the new hedging demand decreased compared with the previous period. The change at the performance end was more notable, with a reduction in forward foreign exchange settlement performance and a significant increase in forward foreign exchange purchase performance, reflecting that some enterprises chose to perform contracts after locking in exchange rates previously but did not simultaneously expand new forward exposures. The unexpired forward net foreign exchange settlement scale is still rising, and the forward foreign exchange settlement and purchase hedging ratios are basically the same, indicating that the forward hedging structure of enterprises tends to be stable, mainly reflecting "stock adjustment" in risk management rather than an active bet on the exchange - rate direction [12]. Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales Structure Analysis Banks' Own Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales - In the macro - data analysis of bank foreign exchange settlement and sales, banks' internal foreign exchange settlement and sales activities are not the key focus. These activities mainly include external dividend and profit payments, repatriation of overseas profits, and capital injection. The funds involved are small in scale and seasonal, having a limited impact on the overall trend of foreign exchange settlement and sales [17]. Banks' Client - Service Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales - In November, the surplus in domestic banks' client - service cross - border receipts and payments narrowed significantly, with both the current account and the capital and financial account declining. The current - account surplus decreased from $74.66 billion to $55.238 billion. The surplus in goods trade fell to $72.666 billion, mainly reflecting a structural adjustment under the stable export rhythm and enhanced marginal import recovery, rather than a reversal of the foreign - trade fundamentals. The deficit in service trade expanded to - $6.421 billion, mainly related to the slow recovery of outbound - related consumption and the incomplete recovery of cross - border service receipts and payments. At the same time, the deficit in the income and current transfer items expanded, weakening the support of the current account for the surplus in cross - border receipts and payments, but the overall current account still maintained a relatively solid surplus foundation. The deficit in the capital and financial account further expanded, indicating that cross - border capital flows are still mainly "structurally outflowing", but the internal composition shows differentiation. In November, the deficit in the capital and financial account expanded to - $38.605 billion. Among them, the deficit in securities investment narrowed to $34.599 billion, showing a significant improvement compared with the previous period, reflecting a marginal relief of the pressure of foreign - capital outflow. The deficit in direct investment narrowed slightly, indicating that cross - border capital flows at the entity level are becoming stable. Other investments changed from a small surplus to a slight deficit, with overall controllable fluctuations. Overall, the capital account still drags down cross - border receipts and payments, but there is no concentrated outflow through a single channel [21]. Deconstruction of November's Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales Securities Investment - In November, the trading activity in the cross - border equity market declined simultaneously, reflecting a phased weakening of risk preferences at home and abroad. The trading volumes of the Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect and the Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect decreased to 4424.844 billion yuan and 1791.246 billion yuan respectively, indicating that both north - bound and south - bound funds were mainly in a wait - and - see mode in that month, and the trading willingness decreased significantly. Compared with the equity end, the foreign - capital allocation in the bond end remained relatively stable, but there was a slight decline in November. The overall fluctuation of the overseas bond custody volume was not large, indicating that long - term allocation funds have not undergone a trend adjustment, but the slight decline in that month also reflects that when both the yield and the exchange rate are in a range - bound oscillation, the power for incremental allocation is insufficient. Overall, the impact of cross - border asset flows on the foreign - exchange market in November was mainly reflected in the slowdown of trading and foreign exchange settlement and sales rhythms, rather than a directional capital - flow shock [27]. Goods Trade - In November, the global manufacturing PMI declined marginally but remained near the boom - bust line, with major economies showing differentiation around the expansion - contraction critical point. Specifically, the global manufacturing PMI decreased slightly from 50.9 in October to 50.5; China's manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.2, showing that the marginal effect of domestic - demand recovery offsetting external - demand slowdown. The US PMI fell to 52.2, the eurozone's to 49.6, and continued to weaken slightly in December, while Japan and South Korea remained below 50. Overall, the global manufacturing boom is in a high - level slowdown stage. External demand has not weakened significantly, but the expansion slope has decreased, making enterprises' foreign - exchange receipts and payments more likely to follow the order and delivery rhythm smoothly rather than adjusting their foreign - exchange settlement and sales strategies in a concentrated manner due to single - month boom fluctuations. In November, China's export data improved significantly, and the trade surplus widened again, indicating that foreign trade still has resilience in supporting foreign - exchange receipts and payments. In US dollars, exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year in November, a significant rebound from the previous month, and imports increased slightly to 1.9% year - on - year. The single - month trade surplus expanded to $111.68 billion. From January to November, exports increased by 5.4% year - on - year, imports decreased by 0.6% year - on - year, and the trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion for the first time. Structurally, the import and export to countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative increased by 6%, effectively offsetting the drag of a 16.9% year - on - year decrease in imports and exports to the US. Mechanical and electrical products accounted for more than 60% of exports, among which the exports of integrated circuits and automobiles maintained rapid growth, and the general decline in commodity import prices also increased the surplus level. Overall, the stable volume and good price of foreign trade, as well as the diversified regional and product structures, help to enhance the long - term support of the current account for foreign exchange settlement and sales and the exchange rate, but in the short term, it mainly plays a "bottom - supporting" role rather than a trend - driving force [32].